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CFB Week 9 Picks

Welcome to the Winners’ Circle ladies and gentlemen.  Going 3-2 last week, with how my year has gone thus far, feels like I had the weekend of a lifetime.  I cannot wait to be brought back down to earth with this horrible Week 9 slate.  Given how many early games I have on my card, be sure to check out my Twitter for more picks throughout the day on Saturday.

Next week, I’ll have my overall records per confidence rating.  What’s the point in even having them if I can’t provide data on each one?  So stay tuned.  Let’s get into my Week 9 Card:

East Carolina at Tulsa -17, o/u 61 – 9PM on ESPN2

Friday night lights, meet Tulsa Football.  I’m clearly a big Tulsa guy and at 3-0 ATS this season I’d be a fool to turn away now.  I’m more of a “ride streak” guy than I am a “due to lose” guy.  Last week I mentioned how well-balanced this Tulsa team is and they showed exactly that in their contest at USF.  The Golden Hurricane’s running attack scored four touchdowns while their defense held USF to 2 for 15 on third downs.  

As far as common opponents, East Carolina lost their first contest of the season 51-28 to UCF, a team that Tulsa beat 34-26 in early October.  East Carolina is probably the worst defense in this conference and are ranked outside of the top 100 for schedule difficulty while Tulsa is top 35.  Clearly, Tulsa is the superior team here and I expect them to win by three touchdowns.

My Pick:  Tulsa -17, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Boston College +31 at #1 Clemson, o/u 61 – NOON on ABC

Does Clemson run it up on Boston College after last week’s performance against Syracuse?  Will Clemson be looking ahead to next week’s showdown at #4 Notre Dame?  Both are very possible, with very different outcomes on the game.  Boston College is a respectable 4-2, holding teams to only 25 ppg.  Phil Jurkovec and BC’s passing attack have had themselves a great year which I expect to keep them in this game.  When I say keep them in this game I mean they’ll probably lose by 28 points.  Who cares, that’s a win.

My Pick:  Boston College +31, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Memphis at #7 Cincinnati -7, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ESPN

UCF, SMU and Memphis all seem like the same team to me, in that there isn’t much defense and none of those teams play smash mouth football.  Cincinnati has only allowed 12.5 ppg in 4 game this season and score 37 ppg.  It’s shocking to me that the #7 team in the country is only a 7 point favorite here, especially when they play such a physical style of football against a team that shouldn’t be able to handle it.  I’d expect this week to look like Cincinnati’s first four games.  Holding Memphis to 20 or less while putting up over 30.

My Pick:  Cincinnati -7, this is my week 9 lock.

Michigan State at #13 Michigan -24.5, o/u 52.5 – NOON on FOX

Rutgers got its first conference win since 2017 last week against MSU.  That’s how bad Michigan State is.  Now, to defend MSU’s defense, the offense did turn the ball over 7 times, so holding Rutgers to only 38 is almost impressive. Michigan smoked Minnesota last week, but overall it was a weirdly sloppy game.  I was still impressed by their performance but the overall sloppiness left a bit to be desired, especially if they want to give Ohio State a run for its money.  With that being said, I expect Michigan’s defense to have an even more dominant game this week than they had at Minnesota (5 sacks, 8 TFL).  Joe Milton was also impressive for someone I wasn’t very high on.  I know I just tried to compliment MSU’s defensive performance last week, but at the end of the day they gave up 38 points to RUTGERS.  Michigan should have their way with this MSU team for the third straight year (65-17 combined in their last two matchups).

My Pick:  Michigan -24.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Missouri at #10 Florida -13.5, o/u 61.5 – 7:30 on SECN

I’ll keep this one short and sweet.  The Florida Gators’ offense is spectacular, their defense is the furthest thing from spectacular.  Their games this year have totaled: 86, 62 and 79.  We may very well see over 1,000 yards of offense from this game as both Missouri and Florida average over 400 yards per game.  Until shown otherwise, I’m going to assume Florida overs to be automatic.

My Pick:  OVER 61.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

New Podcast episodes every Friday for CFB, NFL and more gambling picks! Week 9 CFB and Week 8 NFL this week.

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CFB Week 8 Picks

Sorry for the late post! Usually like to get these out Wednesday night or Thursday around noon at the latest. I went 2-2 last week, which for me felt like a positive week compared to how the past few weeks had been going. Let’s get into my week 8 picks:

Tulsa -10 at USF, o/u 51 – Friday, 7:30PM on ESPN

Friday night lights! Tulsa is playing just their third game of the season this weekend after having their contest last week against Cincinnati cancelled due to coronavirus issues.  The Golden Hurricanes are 2-0 ATS this season and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  So far this year we’ve seen a very well-balanced and competitive Tulsa team; they very well could have beat Oklahoma State week 1 and they knocked UCF out of the top-25 in their second game of the season.  I expect this team to be fired up for this week after preparing for the Cincinnati game and then having it cancelled on them.

USF is on a 4 game skid, with their only win of the season coming in their week 1 matchup against Citadel.  USF, like Tulsa, has faced two top-25 ranked programs.  However, USF has lost those two contests by a combined score of 80-7 (52-0 v. ND, 28-7 v. Cincy).  With USF losing on average by 14 and Tulsa’s offense finding their groove in the UCF contest, I don’t mind laying 10.

My Pick:  Tulsa -10, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Nebraska at #5 Ohio State -26.5, o/u 67.5 – NOON on FOX

Finally, the B1G is back, although it’s already week 8.  We haven’t even seen Ohio State play this year, but it’s pretty obvious that this season comes down to Clemson, Alabama and the Buckeyes.  With only 8 regular season games this year, I expect Ohio State to have the pedal to the floor the entire way.  They’re not going to have to “wow” us every week to earn their spot (clearly, they’re #5 in the country without playing a game), but I would imagine they’ll want everyone to know just how much of a force they really are.

Ohio State has defeated Nebraska by 40+ points in 3 out of their last 4 matchups.  Nebraska is hoping their offense looks better this year with some more experience under their belt after a disappointing 2019.  However, I still expect the Buckeye D-Line to have their way against Nebraska and Adrian Martinez.  I’d lay a million points here.

My Pick:  Ohio State -26.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Georgia Southern at #25 Coastal Carolina -5.5, o/u 51.5 – NOON on ESPNU

The line on this game has bounced around between 7 and 6 all week and so has my pick on this game.  With the line now sitting at -5.5 I jumped on Coastal Carolina.  Georgia Southern has a great defense ranked 32nd against the pass and 27th against the run.  I think their defense paired with their run first offense is going to make this an incredibly tough game for Coastal Carolina; every possession will matter.  The Chanticleers have a tough task this week especially now being ranked for the first time in school history and trying to keep their perfect record alive.  Their 11th ranked offense should be able to handle Georgia Southern’s defense, but with how shaky college kicking has been, -5.5 feels drastically safer than -6.

My Pick:  Coastal Carolina -5.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Hawaii at Fresno State o/u 66 – 7:30PM

Death, taxes and Hawaii overs.  The fact that Hawaii overs were only 9-6 last season blows my mind; I swear I bet them every week and lost maybe once. I remember taking alternate lines on however high I could go because it was pretty much free money.  

Last season, Hawaii lost to Fresno State 41-38 and we have a rematch this weekend for week 8.  I literally know nothing about either of these teams and that’s how I want it to remain.  I see Hawaii – I take the over.  It’s that simple.

My Pick:  OVER 66, this is my lock of the week.

Texas State at #12 BYU -29, o/u 60.5 – 10:15PM on ESPN

I might just be a little salty here, but last time I saw a big spread from BYU, I took it and I lost.  BYU is coming off of a 43-26 victory over Houston, but that game was much closer than the score makes you believe.  I might be wrong, but in my opinion BYU just hasn’t looked the same since their route of La Tech.  They’re still one of my favorite teams in the country right now, but I don’t think they’re the team they looked like they were in the first 3 weeks.

BYU will absolutely win this game and most likely in blowout fashion, but over four touchdowns is too much for me to lay.  Texas State stinks but them putting up 48 against a UTSA team that BYU failed to even put up 30 on gives me some hope they can stay within 30 here.

My Pick: Texas State +29, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

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CFB Week 3 Picks

Back to the drawing board after a rough 1-3 Week 2 in CFB.  I’m no mathematician but if I understand statistics then that means I should go 3-1 this week, right? That’s how statistics work?  Comment your picks below and we can get some records going.

Syracuse at #25 Pittsburgh -21.5, o/u 50 – NOON on ACCN

CFB

Last week, Syracuse lost to UNC 31-6 and gave up 480 yards of offense.  Tommy DeVito was sacked 7 times and threw for only 112 yards.  Pittsburgh is coming off what was essentially a mercy rule 55-0 win over Austin Peay.  They went into halftime up 42-0 where both teams agreed to play only 10-minute quarters for the second half (thoughts and prayers to all over-bettors).   Pittsburgh’s defensive line is more talented than UNC’s from everything I’ve gathered; that spells trouble for Syracuse for the second week in a row.

My Pick:  Pitt -21.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Tulsa at #11 Oklahoma St. -23, o/u 66 – NOON on ESPN

CFB matchup between Tulsa and Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State beat Tulsa last year 40-21.  The spread on that game was 17.5 or 18.5 when Oklahoma State broke a last second touchdown when running out the clock to cover.  This game started a saying amongst my friends of “that’s just Tulsa football”.  I was pretty much dead all game and got bailed out by a fluke play.  Oklahoma State was 9-3-1 ATS last year and this season they have their entire defense returning.  That’s huge considering the limited practices due to COVID restrictions.  OSU is really known for their offense though, putting up over 32 ppg last season and we should expect to see more of the same this time around.  They should be contenders this year and are my black horse for the Big 12 at +700 and the Championship at +10000.  Also; someone to watch, OSU RB Chuba Hubbard is a guy who ran for over 2000 yards last year, is a heisman candidate and a first round hopeful for the NFL.  With all of that being said, Tulsa was 5-2 ATS as the underdog in 2019 – that’s just Tulsa football.  

My Pick:  Tulsa +23 this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Navy at Tulane -7, o/u 48.5 – NOON on ABC

CFB Matchup between Tulane and Navy

Obviously, we all know that Navy got absolutely stomped out by the Mormons in week 1 55-3.  It came out recently that the midshipmen hadn’t even engaged in any live tackling prior to that game due to coronavirus fears, whatever that means.  They gave up over 300 yards rushing for a team that is supposed to be known for their front 7.  Tulane’s lead back only rushed the ball 11 times last week but racked up 105 yards on those attempts.  Tulane is coming up off of their first win of the year where they only gave up 65 yards on 35 rushing attempts.  As we all know, Navy does not or cannot pass the ball.  These are 2 run-first offenses, so you might want to peak at the under, but I just hate unders.  The line opened at Tulane -8.5 and has moved down to -7, I’m going to keep my eye on it and take it at -6.5 or I’ll just buy the half point.

My Pick: Tulane -6.5 this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 Miami at #18 Louisville -2.5, o/u 65 – 7:30pm on ABC

CFB Matchup between Miami and Louisville

This is the game of the week and I’m gambling with my eyes on this one.  I watched both the Louisville v Western Kentucky game and Miami v UAB game.  I was far more impressed with Miami than I was with Louisville and I was also more impressed with UAB than I was Western Kentucky.  Louisville allowed WKU to stay in that game with two major special teams mistakes and Western Kentucky’s own mistakes took themselves out of that game.  Miami and UAB played a much cleaner game and in my opinion, it never seemed like UAB had a shot.  

For this Saturday; Miami is a run-first offense, but D’Eriq King has a cannon for an arm, he just overthrew the deep ball a few times.  If he can dial those in Miami will have an even more dangerous offense.  Running back Cam’Ron Harris looked great and he’s healthy for this week after leaving in the 4th with a leg injury.  On top of that D’Eriq King can move.  Louisville allowed WKU’s QB to scramble quite a bit so I see King taking full advantage of that.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, but I see Miami coming out on top.

My Pick:  Miami ML +110 as my lock of the week.

Check out my Twitter for live tweets during the games and more picks! New episodes of The Vig drop weekly.