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CFB Week 7 Picks

After a season’s worst 1-4 last week, I move to 9-16-1 overall. So congratulations to all of you who are 16-9-1! Like I said before, I’m still losing money here so I’m trying my best to get back in the black. Locks are 2-3 this season and will be 3-3 next week. Let’s get into my Week 7 card:

#14 BYU -5 at Houston, o/u 62.5 – Friday, 9:30PM on ESPN

Friday night lights! I’m still big on BYU, even though they failed to put up as many points as they laid last weekend.  It was unrealistic to expect them to keep blowing teams out of the water and last week’s failure to cover has brought me back to earth.  Now, Houston has only played one game.  They turned the ball over 5 times to Tulane, had zero takeaways and still won by 18.  I think that game was more telling about Tulane than it was against Houston, but it was impressive nonetheless.  With Houston only having one matchup under their belt, it’s really hard to try to evaluate them properly.  One thing I do know, is that either team could win this game and both teams have incredibly talented offenses.  I would expect both the Cougars and the…Cougars…to put up 30+ points.  The over is the play.

My Pick:  OVER 62.5, this a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 SMU -6.5 at Tulane, o/u 64.5 – Friday, 6PM on ESPN

I didn’t list this game as my first pick because this is a live-bet-only game.  Tulane is a team that can only play one half.  Which half will it be this weekend? I do not know.  But first, let’s look deeper into this:

Week 1:  Tulane puts up 6 points in the first-half, 21 points in the second-half.

Week 2:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 0 points in the second-half.

Week 3:  Tulane puts up 31 points in the first-half, 35 points in the second-half.

Week 4:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 7 points in the second-half.

So, this week against SMU, if Tulane can put up 20+ points in the first half:  HAMMER SMU second-half, and I mean HAMMER – put your father’s 401k on it.  If Tulane flops in the first-half, sprinkle a little bit on them to win the second-half. Overall, Tulane is not a good football team, hence the “sprinkle” on them to win the second-half. If Tulane puts up 14-20 points in the first half, we may be in no-mans-land and you’ll have to use your best judgement. I’ll probably stay away if that’s the case.

My Pick:  The opposite of what Tulane shows us first-half.

UCF -3 at Memphis, o/u 73.5 – 3:30PM on ABC

UCF has won their last 13 matchups against Memphis, of which the margin of victory has been less than 3 only twice. They’re coming off of a terrible loss against Tulsa where they blew an 18-point lead and snapped a 21-game winning streak at home.  That loss resulted in them going from #11 in the country to unranked.   Memphis is 1-1 in a very strange season.  They beat Arkansas State in the beginning of September, then had a month off, then lost to SMU which led to another week off and now they face the Golden Knights.  Although they have 6th year senior (6th year!?!?) Brady White under center, I think that the inconsistency of their season combined with an angry UCF team will be too much to handle. UCF’s offense will put up points and as long as their defense can put it together for a few drives they should win by at least a touchdown.

My Pick:  UCF -3, this is my lock of the week.

#3 Georgia at #2 Alabama -6, o/u 56.5 – 8PM on CBS

Alabama is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with a sub 7-point spread.  That includes bowl games, so maybe a more relevant stat would be that they are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games when favored by 7 or fewer.  Georgia has really struggled to get going early in games this season, especially week 1 against Arkansas; their up-tempo approach leaves them vulnerable to going down big early against the Crimson Tide.  Alabama’s defense hasn’t looked quite like we’re used to; however, I think that there’s been an overreaction to what we saw them give up to Ole Miss last weekend.  I’m taking Alabama and the under.  56.5 for Georgia/Alabama just feels huge.  This is a pride game, they want to beat each other up, the SEC this year has really looked more like the Big 12 as far as game totals look and I expect these SEC defenses to shine in this game. I just saw that Saban has tested positive for the coronavirus, so this game probably won’t even happen. Time to add one more play to the card!

My Pick:  Alabama -6 and UNDER 56.5, both are a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

The Self-Quarantine Parlay

Games starting at noon and ending around 11PM. The perfect parlay to sit on the couch and watch Week 7 CFB all day. (Only playing if Bama gets cancelled):

Temple, UAB, UCF, UNC +155

South Florida at Temple (NOON), Western Kentucky at UAB (1:30), UCF at Memphis (3:30), UNC at FSU (7:30)

Check out my Twitter for more week 7 picks and new episodes of the Podcast every Friday!

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CFB Week 3 Picks

Back to the drawing board after a rough 1-3 Week 2 in CFB.  I’m no mathematician but if I understand statistics then that means I should go 3-1 this week, right? That’s how statistics work?  Comment your picks below and we can get some records going.

Syracuse at #25 Pittsburgh -21.5, o/u 50 – NOON on ACCN

CFB

Last week, Syracuse lost to UNC 31-6 and gave up 480 yards of offense.  Tommy DeVito was sacked 7 times and threw for only 112 yards.  Pittsburgh is coming off what was essentially a mercy rule 55-0 win over Austin Peay.  They went into halftime up 42-0 where both teams agreed to play only 10-minute quarters for the second half (thoughts and prayers to all over-bettors).   Pittsburgh’s defensive line is more talented than UNC’s from everything I’ve gathered; that spells trouble for Syracuse for the second week in a row.

My Pick:  Pitt -21.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Tulsa at #11 Oklahoma St. -23, o/u 66 – NOON on ESPN

CFB matchup between Tulsa and Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State beat Tulsa last year 40-21.  The spread on that game was 17.5 or 18.5 when Oklahoma State broke a last second touchdown when running out the clock to cover.  This game started a saying amongst my friends of “that’s just Tulsa football”.  I was pretty much dead all game and got bailed out by a fluke play.  Oklahoma State was 9-3-1 ATS last year and this season they have their entire defense returning.  That’s huge considering the limited practices due to COVID restrictions.  OSU is really known for their offense though, putting up over 32 ppg last season and we should expect to see more of the same this time around.  They should be contenders this year and are my black horse for the Big 12 at +700 and the Championship at +10000.  Also; someone to watch, OSU RB Chuba Hubbard is a guy who ran for over 2000 yards last year, is a heisman candidate and a first round hopeful for the NFL.  With all of that being said, Tulsa was 5-2 ATS as the underdog in 2019 – that’s just Tulsa football.  

My Pick:  Tulsa +23 this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Navy at Tulane -7, o/u 48.5 – NOON on ABC

CFB Matchup between Tulane and Navy

Obviously, we all know that Navy got absolutely stomped out by the Mormons in week 1 55-3.  It came out recently that the midshipmen hadn’t even engaged in any live tackling prior to that game due to coronavirus fears, whatever that means.  They gave up over 300 yards rushing for a team that is supposed to be known for their front 7.  Tulane’s lead back only rushed the ball 11 times last week but racked up 105 yards on those attempts.  Tulane is coming up off of their first win of the year where they only gave up 65 yards on 35 rushing attempts.  As we all know, Navy does not or cannot pass the ball.  These are 2 run-first offenses, so you might want to peak at the under, but I just hate unders.  The line opened at Tulane -8.5 and has moved down to -7, I’m going to keep my eye on it and take it at -6.5 or I’ll just buy the half point.

My Pick: Tulane -6.5 this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 Miami at #18 Louisville -2.5, o/u 65 – 7:30pm on ABC

CFB Matchup between Miami and Louisville

This is the game of the week and I’m gambling with my eyes on this one.  I watched both the Louisville v Western Kentucky game and Miami v UAB game.  I was far more impressed with Miami than I was with Louisville and I was also more impressed with UAB than I was Western Kentucky.  Louisville allowed WKU to stay in that game with two major special teams mistakes and Western Kentucky’s own mistakes took themselves out of that game.  Miami and UAB played a much cleaner game and in my opinion, it never seemed like UAB had a shot.  

For this Saturday; Miami is a run-first offense, but D’Eriq King has a cannon for an arm, he just overthrew the deep ball a few times.  If he can dial those in Miami will have an even more dangerous offense.  Running back Cam’Ron Harris looked great and he’s healthy for this week after leaving in the 4th with a leg injury.  On top of that D’Eriq King can move.  Louisville allowed WKU’s QB to scramble quite a bit so I see King taking full advantage of that.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, but I see Miami coming out on top.

My Pick:  Miami ML +110 as my lock of the week.

Check out my Twitter for live tweets during the games and more picks! New episodes of The Vig drop weekly.