Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 9 Picks

Welcome to the Winners’ Circle ladies and gentlemen.  Going 3-2 last week, with how my year has gone thus far, feels like I had the weekend of a lifetime.  I cannot wait to be brought back down to earth with this horrible Week 9 slate.  Given how many early games I have on my card, be sure to check out my Twitter for more picks throughout the day on Saturday.

Next week, I’ll have my overall records per confidence rating.  What’s the point in even having them if I can’t provide data on each one?  So stay tuned.  Let’s get into my Week 9 Card:

East Carolina at Tulsa -17, o/u 61 – 9PM on ESPN2

Friday night lights, meet Tulsa Football.  I’m clearly a big Tulsa guy and at 3-0 ATS this season I’d be a fool to turn away now.  I’m more of a “ride streak” guy than I am a “due to lose” guy.  Last week I mentioned how well-balanced this Tulsa team is and they showed exactly that in their contest at USF.  The Golden Hurricane’s running attack scored four touchdowns while their defense held USF to 2 for 15 on third downs.  

As far as common opponents, East Carolina lost their first contest of the season 51-28 to UCF, a team that Tulsa beat 34-26 in early October.  East Carolina is probably the worst defense in this conference and are ranked outside of the top 100 for schedule difficulty while Tulsa is top 35.  Clearly, Tulsa is the superior team here and I expect them to win by three touchdowns.

My Pick:  Tulsa -17, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Boston College +31 at #1 Clemson, o/u 61 – NOON on ABC

Does Clemson run it up on Boston College after last week’s performance against Syracuse?  Will Clemson be looking ahead to next week’s showdown at #4 Notre Dame?  Both are very possible, with very different outcomes on the game.  Boston College is a respectable 4-2, holding teams to only 25 ppg.  Phil Jurkovec and BC’s passing attack have had themselves a great year which I expect to keep them in this game.  When I say keep them in this game I mean they’ll probably lose by 28 points.  Who cares, that’s a win.

My Pick:  Boston College +31, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Memphis at #7 Cincinnati -7, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ESPN

UCF, SMU and Memphis all seem like the same team to me, in that there isn’t much defense and none of those teams play smash mouth football.  Cincinnati has only allowed 12.5 ppg in 4 game this season and score 37 ppg.  It’s shocking to me that the #7 team in the country is only a 7 point favorite here, especially when they play such a physical style of football against a team that shouldn’t be able to handle it.  I’d expect this week to look like Cincinnati’s first four games.  Holding Memphis to 20 or less while putting up over 30.

My Pick:  Cincinnati -7, this is my week 9 lock.

Michigan State at #13 Michigan -24.5, o/u 52.5 – NOON on FOX

Rutgers got its first conference win since 2017 last week against MSU.  That’s how bad Michigan State is.  Now, to defend MSU’s defense, the offense did turn the ball over 7 times, so holding Rutgers to only 38 is almost impressive. Michigan smoked Minnesota last week, but overall it was a weirdly sloppy game.  I was still impressed by their performance but the overall sloppiness left a bit to be desired, especially if they want to give Ohio State a run for its money.  With that being said, I expect Michigan’s defense to have an even more dominant game this week than they had at Minnesota (5 sacks, 8 TFL).  Joe Milton was also impressive for someone I wasn’t very high on.  I know I just tried to compliment MSU’s defensive performance last week, but at the end of the day they gave up 38 points to RUTGERS.  Michigan should have their way with this MSU team for the third straight year (65-17 combined in their last two matchups).

My Pick:  Michigan -24.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Missouri at #10 Florida -13.5, o/u 61.5 – 7:30 on SECN

I’ll keep this one short and sweet.  The Florida Gators’ offense is spectacular, their defense is the furthest thing from spectacular.  Their games this year have totaled: 86, 62 and 79.  We may very well see over 1,000 yards of offense from this game as both Missouri and Florida average over 400 yards per game.  Until shown otherwise, I’m going to assume Florida overs to be automatic.

My Pick:  OVER 61.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

New Podcast episodes every Friday for CFB, NFL and more gambling picks! Week 9 CFB and Week 8 NFL this week.

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 7 Picks

After a season’s worst 1-4 last week, I move to 9-16-1 overall. So congratulations to all of you who are 16-9-1! Like I said before, I’m still losing money here so I’m trying my best to get back in the black. Locks are 2-3 this season and will be 3-3 next week. Let’s get into my Week 7 card:

#14 BYU -5 at Houston, o/u 62.5 – Friday, 9:30PM on ESPN

Friday night lights! I’m still big on BYU, even though they failed to put up as many points as they laid last weekend.  It was unrealistic to expect them to keep blowing teams out of the water and last week’s failure to cover has brought me back to earth.  Now, Houston has only played one game.  They turned the ball over 5 times to Tulane, had zero takeaways and still won by 18.  I think that game was more telling about Tulane than it was against Houston, but it was impressive nonetheless.  With Houston only having one matchup under their belt, it’s really hard to try to evaluate them properly.  One thing I do know, is that either team could win this game and both teams have incredibly talented offenses.  I would expect both the Cougars and the…Cougars…to put up 30+ points.  The over is the play.

My Pick:  OVER 62.5, this a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 SMU -6.5 at Tulane, o/u 64.5 – Friday, 6PM on ESPN

I didn’t list this game as my first pick because this is a live-bet-only game.  Tulane is a team that can only play one half.  Which half will it be this weekend? I do not know.  But first, let’s look deeper into this:

Week 1:  Tulane puts up 6 points in the first-half, 21 points in the second-half.

Week 2:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 0 points in the second-half.

Week 3:  Tulane puts up 31 points in the first-half, 35 points in the second-half.

Week 4:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 7 points in the second-half.

So, this week against SMU, if Tulane can put up 20+ points in the first half:  HAMMER SMU second-half, and I mean HAMMER – put your father’s 401k on it.  If Tulane flops in the first-half, sprinkle a little bit on them to win the second-half. Overall, Tulane is not a good football team, hence the “sprinkle” on them to win the second-half. If Tulane puts up 14-20 points in the first half, we may be in no-mans-land and you’ll have to use your best judgement. I’ll probably stay away if that’s the case.

My Pick:  The opposite of what Tulane shows us first-half.

UCF -3 at Memphis, o/u 73.5 – 3:30PM on ABC

UCF has won their last 13 matchups against Memphis, of which the margin of victory has been less than 3 only twice. They’re coming off of a terrible loss against Tulsa where they blew an 18-point lead and snapped a 21-game winning streak at home.  That loss resulted in them going from #11 in the country to unranked.   Memphis is 1-1 in a very strange season.  They beat Arkansas State in the beginning of September, then had a month off, then lost to SMU which led to another week off and now they face the Golden Knights.  Although they have 6th year senior (6th year!?!?) Brady White under center, I think that the inconsistency of their season combined with an angry UCF team will be too much to handle. UCF’s offense will put up points and as long as their defense can put it together for a few drives they should win by at least a touchdown.

My Pick:  UCF -3, this is my lock of the week.

#3 Georgia at #2 Alabama -6, o/u 56.5 – 8PM on CBS

Alabama is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with a sub 7-point spread.  That includes bowl games, so maybe a more relevant stat would be that they are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games when favored by 7 or fewer.  Georgia has really struggled to get going early in games this season, especially week 1 against Arkansas; their up-tempo approach leaves them vulnerable to going down big early against the Crimson Tide.  Alabama’s defense hasn’t looked quite like we’re used to; however, I think that there’s been an overreaction to what we saw them give up to Ole Miss last weekend.  I’m taking Alabama and the under.  56.5 for Georgia/Alabama just feels huge.  This is a pride game, they want to beat each other up, the SEC this year has really looked more like the Big 12 as far as game totals look and I expect these SEC defenses to shine in this game. I just saw that Saban has tested positive for the coronavirus, so this game probably won’t even happen. Time to add one more play to the card!

My Pick:  Alabama -6 and UNDER 56.5, both are a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

The Self-Quarantine Parlay

Games starting at noon and ending around 11PM. The perfect parlay to sit on the couch and watch Week 7 CFB all day. (Only playing if Bama gets cancelled):

Temple, UAB, UCF, UNC +155

South Florida at Temple (NOON), Western Kentucky at UAB (1:30), UCF at Memphis (3:30), UNC at FSU (7:30)

Check out my Twitter for more week 7 picks and new episodes of the Podcast every Friday!

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 4 Picks

We’re 3-5 on the cfb season so far.  Not great, but it’s early – we’re still learning!  We had one of the worst losses you’ll ever see last week after Tulane blew a 24-0 lead with Navy scoring 27 unanswered, that’s just a loss that you cannot have.  If you follow me on Twitter, you can see the other picks I take throughout the day because 4 is obviously not enough.  Last week I added Troy -2.5 and Miami 1H ML, so in reality I went 4-2 and we’re even on the year, but who’s counting? 

Let’s get into this week’s card.

Middle Tennessee at Texas San Antonio -6.5, o/u 60 – Friday, 8PM on CBSSN

Friday Night Lights! Which means we all have an obligation to bet this game.  Last week, I took Troy -2.5 against Middle Tennessee and it was never in doubt, with Troy coming out on top 47-14.  Middle Tennessee has now lost their first two contests at a combined score of 89-14…yikes.  On the other side, UTSA had an absolute shootout in Week 1 against Texas State winning 51-48 in OT and have found themselves in a hot streak after beating SF Austin 24-10 last week.  The play here seems pretty obvious, 6.5 points is not even close to enough for a team that can hardly manage to score a TD per game.  Middle Tennessee has no run defense (allows 290 yds/gm) and UTSA loves run the ball all over your face (280 yds/gm).  I see this covering easily to start your weekend off right.

My Pick:  UTSA -6.5, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating. I can’t give a lock on Friday night!

#24 Louisville at #21 Pittsburgh -3, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ACCN

I had Pittsburgh -21.5 last week against Syracuse and it was just a disgusting game to watch no matter who you were rooting for.  I hear a lot of hype around Kenny Pickett, but overall I wasn’t very impressed.  His stat line is ok, but watching the game, his decision making was very questionable and he had a lot of bad passes.  He seems like a guy who won’t lose the game for you, but he also won’t win it for you either.  I also had Miami beating Louisville last week which was never close.  I think Miami could be the real deal this year, so I don’t want to look at that game as a major failure by Louisville – they’re just not a major contender while Miami very well could be. 

Malik Cunningham is a playmaker and will see a challenge this week against a stout Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 26 ypg on the ground .  To be fair, Miami’s defense is supposed to be stout as well and Louisville still managed to rack up 34 points.  With Pittsburgh’s offense being lackluster to say the least, I think that Louisville should be able to contain them enough to allow their offensive firepower to be the difference maker.  Louisville should be the favorite in this game. Take the free points if you’re scared of a little juice, but you’re not scared of the juice.

My Pick:  Louisville ML +125, this is my lock of the week.

Mississippi State at #6 LSU -17, o/u 57.5 – 3:30 PM on CBS

Oct 20, 2018; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill (8) is tackled by LSU Tigers defensive end Rashard Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

To nobody’s surprise, LSU has had to do a lot of rebuilding coming into this year.  Of course, when you win a national title you’re going to lose a lot of your guys to the NFL so this is to be expected.  Still, it makes you wonder what exactly we’ll be seeing this year from the Tigers and Coach O.  Mississippi State is now in the Air Raid era of Mike Leach.  For those of you who have been following us from our XFL beginnings, Mike Leach’s mentor is the legendary Hal Mumme (former OC for the Dallas Renegades and the air raid Don). 

LSU’s defense will be put to the test against this Air Raid Offense and I expect Mississippi State to see the endzone a few times.  On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s defense is arguably the worst in the SEC and we all know what LSU is capable of (the over was 10-5 last season).  The over is the play here and I think everyone has their eye on it. (WARNING: The over is 0-5 in these programs last 5 matchups)

My Pick:  Over 57.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma State -7, o/u 51.5 – 3:30 PM on ABC

We really don’t have much to evaluate on West Virginia’s side.  They stomped an FCS team in Eastern Kentucky 56-10, but does that hold any weight? This week will be their first true test of the season and they did have two weeks to prepare, so take that into account more than their beatdown on that poor Eastern Kentucky team. 

Oklahoma State was a major let down for a lot of people last week after only scoring 16 against a Tulsa team they were supposed to blow out.  A win is a win though, so it’s on to the next week and on to West Virginia.  I’m still really high on the Cowboys, but this week is all going to come down to Spencer Sanders health.  He injured his ankle against Tulsa and the offense looked atrocious from that point on. Yes, Chuba Hubbard is an NFL prospect and yes, Tylan Wallace is incredible – BUT, Ethan Bullock is terrible and who knows about Shane Illingworth. If Spencer Sanders is healthy and ready to go, I’ll take Oklahoma State all the way up to -10.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -7, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating*.

*Pending Spencer Sanders’ health.

Check out the Podcast every week for our CFB and NFL picks/analysis!