Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 5 Picks

2-2 last week makes me 5-7 on the year.  Obviously, I’d prefer to be 7-5 but you know who is 7-5? YOU!  Because you are now fading me every single week.  The only thing worse than going 5-7 would be going 6-6.  I’m giving you what not to take; which, in a roundabout way, means I’m giving you what to take.  Now, I’m still losing money here.  I’m not about to spend the next 5 weeks trying to get back to even so we have a do or die Week 5.  Nine plays and I can feel a heater coming on.

I’m going to give my usual analysis of my favorite games for week 5 and then just some quick picks at the end for the record books.  Fade at your own risk:

Louisiana Tech at #22 BYU -24, o/u 59 – Friday, 9PM on ESPN2

CFB Week 5 - La Tech at BYU

Friday Night Lights.  This is a matchup between a pair of 2-0 programs.  BYU is off to a historic start beating Navy 55-3 and following that up with a 48-7 victory over Troy.  La Tech smoked an FCS team (Boooo!) and squeezed out a 1-point victory against Southern Mississippi.  Stay with me here.  Southern Mississippi lost to Tulane 66-24, who lost to Navy 27-24, who lost to BYU 55-3!  So, if Team A > Team B > Team C > Team D ≈ Team E, is Team A > or < Team E?

Sorry, that’s completely pointless since BYU is already favored by 24 points; I’m just a sucker for a good old transitive property scenario.  On a serious note, BYU looks incredible.  Quarterback Zach Wilson is completing nearly 80% of his passes and the defense is allowing only 5 ppg.  Louisiana Tech has shown that they can put up points, but against an FCS team in Houston Baptist, that doesn’t hold much weight.  Troy also put up 47 the week prior to being held to only 7 by BYU.  I’ll ride with the Mormon’s till I die, but much like them, I can’t only have 1.

My Picks:  BYU -24 and OVER 59, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating.

UTSA at UAB -20.5, o/u 54.5 – 12:30

I really like UAB every year and Conference USA is one of those weird, fun gambling conferences.  The UTSA Roadrunners are coming off a 37-35 win over Middle Tennessee to become the first 3-0 team in the country, which is great for them.  However, they were a two-point conversion away from going to overtime with an 0-2 Middle Tennessee team that scored 14 points total in their first two games.  UTSA’s offense is solid but their defense is lacking.  At the end of the day, they are 3-0 and they’re 6-3 ATS in their last 9 (1-2 this season).  

UAB is 2-1 including a tough loss to a good Miami team.  This will be their first in-conference game and they’re undefeated at home since the programs resurgence in 2017 – that’s 19 straight wins at home.  They’re also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in October.  This line did open at 18.5 and most of the money is coming in on UTSA, I’m not a big “fade the public” guy, but I feel better being in this position.  With that being said, I won’t touch -21 or higher.

My Pick:  UAB -20.5 this is a 2 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 Oklahoma State -21.5 at Kansas, o/u 54 – 3:30PM on ESPN

I’m 2-0 in Oklahoma State games and Kansas STINKS.  I was unsure last week with Spencer Sanders being out, but Oklahoma State’s offense seemed to click pretty well with Shane Illingworth under center and the run game looked how everyone expected it to look this season.  They did only score 27 last week so we’re not seeing the offensive firepower that they’re known for and a 3-score spread feels daunting.  However, Kansas’ defense is giving up over 40 ppg in this young season and I think this could be OSU’s breakout game.  Regardless, the deciding factor in this game will be Oklahoma State’s defense.  Everyone overlooks it because they want to see the high powered offense, but the defense quietly racked up 5 sacks last week and is only allowing 10 ppg. Oklahoma State will put up more than 40 points in this game.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -21.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Tulsa at #11 UCF -21.5, o/u 72 – 7:30PM on ESPN2

A golden matchup.  Last season, UCF went 9-3.  In those 3 losses, they lost by a combined 7 points.  If the wind blew a different direction last year, we could very easily be talking about UCF going for their 4th consecutive undefeated regular season right now.  With how strange of a year this is, the self-declared National Champions of UCF have as good a shot as ever to make a run for the CFP.  Dillon Gabriel is coming off back-to-back 400 yard, 4 TD games and UCF has put up a combined 100 points in their first 2 games of the season.

Tulsa football is just that:  Tulsa Football. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 and 6-2 in their last 8 against the Golden Knights.  Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricanes, they have the honor of playing the #11 ranked team in the country in back-to-back games.  They’re coming off of a 16-7 loss to then #11 Oklahoma State where their defense looked stout, but their offense left a lot to be desired.  On the bright side, they did defeat the Golden Knights last season 34-31 and have had two weeks to prepare due to last week’s postponement.  Can they defeat UCF again this week?  I don’t think so.  Can they cover 3 scores? Probably.  What I’m really looking at here is a powerful UCF offense versus a decent Tulsa offense; who I believe, played an underrated Oklahoma State defense in their first contest.  I expect a high-scoring affair.

My Pick:  Tulsa +21.5 and OVER 72.  The over is my lock of the week.

Final Week 5 Picks:

  • Baylor -3 at West Virginia
  • #25 Memphis at SMU, OVER 74
  • #18 Oklahoma -7 at Iowa State

Follow me on Twitter for added picks and check out the Podcast every week!

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 3 Picks

Back to the drawing board after a rough 1-3 Week 2 in CFB.  I’m no mathematician but if I understand statistics then that means I should go 3-1 this week, right? That’s how statistics work?  Comment your picks below and we can get some records going.

Syracuse at #25 Pittsburgh -21.5, o/u 50 – NOON on ACCN

CFB

Last week, Syracuse lost to UNC 31-6 and gave up 480 yards of offense.  Tommy DeVito was sacked 7 times and threw for only 112 yards.  Pittsburgh is coming off what was essentially a mercy rule 55-0 win over Austin Peay.  They went into halftime up 42-0 where both teams agreed to play only 10-minute quarters for the second half (thoughts and prayers to all over-bettors).   Pittsburgh’s defensive line is more talented than UNC’s from everything I’ve gathered; that spells trouble for Syracuse for the second week in a row.

My Pick:  Pitt -21.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Tulsa at #11 Oklahoma St. -23, o/u 66 – NOON on ESPN

CFB matchup between Tulsa and Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State beat Tulsa last year 40-21.  The spread on that game was 17.5 or 18.5 when Oklahoma State broke a last second touchdown when running out the clock to cover.  This game started a saying amongst my friends of “that’s just Tulsa football”.  I was pretty much dead all game and got bailed out by a fluke play.  Oklahoma State was 9-3-1 ATS last year and this season they have their entire defense returning.  That’s huge considering the limited practices due to COVID restrictions.  OSU is really known for their offense though, putting up over 32 ppg last season and we should expect to see more of the same this time around.  They should be contenders this year and are my black horse for the Big 12 at +700 and the Championship at +10000.  Also; someone to watch, OSU RB Chuba Hubbard is a guy who ran for over 2000 yards last year, is a heisman candidate and a first round hopeful for the NFL.  With all of that being said, Tulsa was 5-2 ATS as the underdog in 2019 – that’s just Tulsa football.  

My Pick:  Tulsa +23 this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Navy at Tulane -7, o/u 48.5 – NOON on ABC

CFB Matchup between Tulane and Navy

Obviously, we all know that Navy got absolutely stomped out by the Mormons in week 1 55-3.  It came out recently that the midshipmen hadn’t even engaged in any live tackling prior to that game due to coronavirus fears, whatever that means.  They gave up over 300 yards rushing for a team that is supposed to be known for their front 7.  Tulane’s lead back only rushed the ball 11 times last week but racked up 105 yards on those attempts.  Tulane is coming up off of their first win of the year where they only gave up 65 yards on 35 rushing attempts.  As we all know, Navy does not or cannot pass the ball.  These are 2 run-first offenses, so you might want to peak at the under, but I just hate unders.  The line opened at Tulane -8.5 and has moved down to -7, I’m going to keep my eye on it and take it at -6.5 or I’ll just buy the half point.

My Pick: Tulane -6.5 this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 Miami at #18 Louisville -2.5, o/u 65 – 7:30pm on ABC

CFB Matchup between Miami and Louisville

This is the game of the week and I’m gambling with my eyes on this one.  I watched both the Louisville v Western Kentucky game and Miami v UAB game.  I was far more impressed with Miami than I was with Louisville and I was also more impressed with UAB than I was Western Kentucky.  Louisville allowed WKU to stay in that game with two major special teams mistakes and Western Kentucky’s own mistakes took themselves out of that game.  Miami and UAB played a much cleaner game and in my opinion, it never seemed like UAB had a shot.  

For this Saturday; Miami is a run-first offense, but D’Eriq King has a cannon for an arm, he just overthrew the deep ball a few times.  If he can dial those in Miami will have an even more dangerous offense.  Running back Cam’Ron Harris looked great and he’s healthy for this week after leaving in the 4th with a leg injury.  On top of that D’Eriq King can move.  Louisville allowed WKU’s QB to scramble quite a bit so I see King taking full advantage of that.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, but I see Miami coming out on top.

My Pick:  Miami ML +110 as my lock of the week.

Check out my Twitter for live tweets during the games and more picks! New episodes of The Vig drop weekly.