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CFB Week 10 Picks

I went 2-3 last week after missing the Florida/Mizzou over by HALF of a point. You just hate to see that. You can hear my picks and analysis on last week’s episode of The Vig. Stay tuned for this week’s episode, dropping Friday, which will have some more week 10 picks as well as some NFL picks. Let’s get into my week 10 card:

Kansas at #19 Oklahoma -38, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN

Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS, Kansas is 0-6 ATS.  Kansas has yet to be competitive this year and Oklahoma is returning home, riding a 3-game winning streak.  I think this game is pretty self-explanatory, in that Kansas will continue to be abused by their fellow Big12 opponents and allow for Oklahoma’s backups to get a solid workout in.  

The Jayhawks are losing on average by 30 points and even lost by 44 to BAYLOR.  You’d have to be insane to take Kansas in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma cover this spread in the first half alone.  Lastly, these teams are a combined 9-2-1 when it comes to Over/Unders.  This is a pure numbers game and the numbers tell you to fade Kansas and to take the over.

My Pick:  Oklahoma -38 and over 63, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Rutgers +38 at #3 Ohio State, o/u 65 – 7:30PM on BTN

This game is going to make me hate myself.  Why am I taking two 38-point spreads?  More importantly, why am I taking Rutgers!?  They beat a Michigan State team that went on to beat a Michigan team that most people had high hopes for.  They followed that up with an absolutely heartbreaking called back touchdown off of some crazy laterals, which cost them the ATS win.  Gregg Schiano has this team playing well above their talent level and I expect them to come into this game fired up.  Rutgers defense has done great at holding opponents on third-down and their offense is somehow managing to put points on the board.  They’ll only be able to hang with Ohio State for a quarter or two, but at +38, I think that’s all it’ll take. 

My Pick:  Rutgers +38, this is my lock of the week.

Stanford at #12 Oregon -10.5, o/u 51 – 7:30PM on ABC

If I was smart I’d stay away from the PAC12 for a couple of weeks just to get somewhat of an idea on how things will pan out.  However, it’s week 10 and I’m an Oregon fan, so I’m just gonna dive right in.  Oregon finished the season 12-2 last year and Stanford finished 4-8.  Obviously the Ducks are without Justin Herbert and have had quite a few opt outs.  Stanford has suffered a fairly significant loss of personnel as well. 

People still imagine Chip Kelly’s Oregon team of a high powered offense and while they still do have the ability to run the score up, their defense might be the bread and butter of this team.  They were the ninth ranked defense last year and I expect them to kick it up a notch this year.  I don’t see Stanford’s offense doing enough damage and I think Oregon starts the season off strong at home.

My Pick:  Oregon -10.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#1 Clemson -5.5 at #4 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 7:30PM on NBC

We’ve now seen back-to-back tough showings from Clemson.  They’ve allowed Syracuse to stay in the game for 3 quarters and nearly blew their season last week against Boston College.  Obviously, Trevor Lawrence was out last week.  Unfortunately for them, he’s out this week as well.  I was wondering if Notre Dame may even be favored this week, which they clearly are not.  I expect for all of the money to come in on Notre Dame and I think Vegas wants all of the money to come in on ND.  For that exact reason, I’ll be taking Clemson.  On top of that, Notre Dame just hasn’t impressed me so far this season.  I truly do not know what Notre Dame team we’ll see this weekend and they’ve stumbled against far lesser teams than Clemson.  Clemson will win this game and laying 5.5 isn’t enough to make me feel uncomfortable.

My Pick:  Clemson -5.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

P.S. – look out for Syracuse (+14) to cover, if not beat BC this week.

P.P.S. – check out my Twitter for some live tweeting and other week 10 picks throughout the day.

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CFB Week 2 Picks

It’s obviously very difficult to know what to expect from any team in the first few games of a season in any sport, but especially college sports because of the amount of turnover you see year-to-year.  So, one of the most important statistics for the first couple of week’s is going to be looking at teams’ returning production. 

Charlotte at Appalachian State -17, o/u59 – Saturday, NOON on ESPN2 

Both of these teams are in the top 30 overall with offensive returning production.  Both teams still have their dual-threat QBs and still have their main receiving corps. Appalachian State is a team that went 13-1 last season with the 9th overall scoring offense averaging 39 ppg. Charlotte is a team that averaged 30 ppg last season and runs a spread offense that really started to click by the end of the year where they won their last 5 conference games.  

On the flip side of this, both of these teams are in the lower half of returning production on defense.  While App State only allowed 20 ppg, they did lose nearly half of their defense so I expect them to take a step back.  Charlotte lost nearly 60% of their defense including their schools all-time leading tackler as well as their all-time sack leader.  A team that allowed over 32 ppg last season could see an even larger number this year.  I see the over hitting pretty easily, the only thing I could see getting in the way is some rain in the forecast to cause some issues in the passing game.

My Pick:  OVER 59

Duke at Notre Dame -19.5, o/u54.5 – Saturday, 2:30PM on NBC

DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 09: Josh Blackwell #31 and Michael Carter II #26 of the Duke Blue Devils chase Ian Book #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish out of bounds during the first quarter of their game at Wallace Wade Stadium on November 09, 2019 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

This is the only game on my card that will have fans in attendance – around 15,000. Notre Dame isn’t known as a particularly tough place to play, so I don’t see the attendance being a factor; but I still thought it was worth noting. These two teams faced off last year and Notre Dame won handily 38-7.   Last year, Duke was a sub .500 team at 5-7 and has seen a pretty big shake up overall, a new QB and 3 new coaches paired with limited time to prepare with coronavirus. They do have a lot of returning talent on the defensive end, but for a team that gave up 30 ppg, I’m not so sure that’s a good thing.  Notre Dame is on their best stretch of football in recent memory and most importantly they’re 24-14-1 ATS in their last 3 seasons.  They have a heisman candidate QB in 5th-year-senior Ian Book who will be working behind 6 returning offensive lineman.  Notre Dame is a playoff hopeful who I can see going 11-1 this year (losing to Clemson).  I’m taking Notre Dame minus the points and expect a similar score to last years matchup.  Some rain in the forecast as well – maybe take a peak at the under.

My Pick:  Notre Dame -19.5

Clemson -33 at Wake Forest, o/u60 – Saturday, 7:30PM on ABC

Oct 6, 2018; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Travis Etienne (9) runs the ball in the first quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at BB&T Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson was 8-1 ATS in conference games last season which includes a 52-3 win over Wake Forest.  A 33 point spread is scary enough, but – something to ease your mind – Clemson was 5-1 ATS last season when the spread was over 30 points.  Clemson is a team that is in the lower-tier of returning production, but of those returning you have the best QB in the nation in Trevor Lawrence, you have Travis Etienne who is probably the best back in the nation and Clemson’s entire defensive line is back.  Wake Forest is the polar opposite.  They lost their quarterback, running back, top 3 receivers and almost their entire offensive line.  If the score wasn’t so outrageous in last years contest I would say to expect an even better showing from the Tigers. I’m taking Clemson -33 and I’m going to take the first half line as well.

My Picks:  Clemson 1H -21 and Clemson -33