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Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Picks

Atlanta Motor Speedway – 325 laps / 500 miles

The past four races here have been dominated by two drivers: Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.  This is a worn-down track, which the drivers love, but that means track position is more important than ever.  Tires are huge here and much like every other 1.5-mile track, whoever has the best pit strategy will take the checkered flag.  Martin Truex Jr. blew it last night in the Xfinity Series race due to a late-race speeding penalty.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone beat themselves today in similar fashion.  Let’s get into my picks:

Winner/Top 3:

William Byron (+1200/+450):  Am I a little biased? Yes.  But, that’s ok.  How am I biased? Check out next week’s podcast to see why.  He has only raced here three times with a best finish of 17th.  However, he already has a win this season on a similar track and Hendrick Motorsports is the hottest team in racing.  He’ll be competitive today at the least.

Matchups:

Tail Byron:  Am I a little biased? Yes.  We’re tailing instead of fading this week.  William has finished 8th, 8th, and 1st in the only intermediate tacks this season.  He’s trending up and seems to be getting better every week.  He more or less started the #FadeTrain and every once in a while respects must be paid.  He also has the 6th pit stall today, with an easy entry due to the 7th pit stall being vacant, and he is starting inside the top 10.  Time to go all in on Byron this week.

William Byron over Joey Logano (+115):  Logano only has two top 5s in his fourteen career races here.  He has an average finish of 13 in recent races at this track, and Penske doesn’t seem to have their 1.5-mile package figured out.  They look great on the short-run but fall of in the long-run.  To top it off, I would expect Keselowski to be the guy on Team Penske this week.

William Byron over Kyle Busch (+130):  I hate Kyle Busch and I hate even more that he is known as “Rowdy”.  He’s coming off a third-place finish at the most recent 1.5-mile track of Vegas, but finished last week 25th, and 10th at Homestead – where Byron won.  He has the 29th pit stall and is starting in the 19th position.

William Byron over Ryan Blaney (+115):  Ryan Blaney is the antithesis of Kyle Busch here; I’m a big fan.  He actually is trending in the right direction with back-to-back top 10s after a slow start to the season.  However, Keselowski is the Penske guy today.  In only five career races here, Blaney finishes on average 16.20.  Looking back to Homestead, which to me is a good indicator for other 1.5-mile tracks, he finished 29th.

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Instacart 500 Picks

Phoenix Raceway – 312 laps / 312 miles

Today the Instacart 500 gives us our first 1-mile track of the season; thank god, because these 1.5-mile tracks stink.  Joey Logano is looking to go back-to-back at the spring race in Phoenix while Chase Elliott is looking to go back-to-back after winning the Cup Series Championship here in November.  It’s hard to feel overly confident about any research I do considering this is the first 1-mile track race of this season, only the fifth race overall, and each of those races has had an unexpected winner.  I’ll continue to give a pick for who will take the checkered flag, but remember my bread and butter is the Fade Train (which went 0-3 last week to go 5-3 thus far on the season).  Let’s get into it.

Winner:

Denny Hamlin (+550): Denny has the third-best driver rating at Phoenix Raceway in the last six races and he has also led nearly 10% of all laps in that span.  He’ll be starting in the front row today after Larson was kicked to the back and he has the second pit stall which will come in huge towards the end of the race.  With three top 5s in four races this season, I think it’s just a matter of time before we see him take the checkered flag.

Matchups:

Fade Kyle Larson:  While Larson has the third-best average finish in recent races here, he only has the eighth-best driver rating.  Coming off of a huge win, I can see this being a letdown spot for him, if that’s even a thing in racing.  I feel even more confident in fading Larson after learning he was kicked to the back of the lineup with his teammate William Byron (team Hendrick crumbling?).

Martin Truex Jr. over Kyle Larson (+130):  Truex has the eighth-best average finish compared to Larson’s third-best, but has a favorable driver rating of 97 to Larson’s 96.5. He’ll be starting in the second row today and while the 33rd pit stall is not ideal, he has an easy exit out of his stall with a gap between him and the 32nd stall.

Joey Logano over Kyle Larson (EVEN):  Like I said earlier, Logano is looking to go back-to-back in the spring race here in Phoenix.  He has a favorable driver rating of 98.6, he’ll be starting in the fourth row, and he has and easy entry into pit stall 9 which is arguably more important than an easy exit (which Larson has in pit stall 5).

Kyle Busch over Kyle Larson (+110):  It’s hard to find a track where Kyle isn’t leading all races in pretty much every statistic.  This track is no different from the rest.  Busch has the best average finish here in recent races (3.33), he has two wins in the last 6 races, and has a driver rating of 125.9.  I faded Kyle last week and it looked great for 95% of the race, but Busch ended up finishing strong.  Maybe the curse of last year is over.  He’s starting in the 3rd row and has the 16th pit stall with 2 vacant stalls in front of him.

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Dixie Vodka 400 Picks

Homestead – Miami Speedway – 267 laps / 400 miles

Winners/Top 3 Finishers:

Kyle Larson (+700): Larson has never won at Homestead. He was having a great race his last outing here until a blown engine caused a DNF. His last five races at Homestead resulted in: DNF, 13th, 2nd, and 5th. He also has the sixth best driver rating out of all active drivers at this track. +700 odds isn’t spectacular value, but like I said last week, this guy is too good to not win one sooner rather than later (please be sooner because I can’t bet on you every week).

Matchups:

I had three potential fades this week: Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, or Chase Elliott. I only pick plus money on matchups because I don’t think there is any value in matchup favorites. With Bowman and Ku. Busch being the 10th and 15th favorites to win, respectively, finding any good plus money against them is just about impossible. That leaves me to fade the second-favorite-to-win Chase Elliott.

Fade Elliott: Chase has a pretty good track record at Homestead (pun), but his overall track record on 1.5-mile tracks is not great. In fact, everyone in the top 10 of odds-to-win today, besides Bowman, have a better average finish and driver rating than Elliott at 1.5 mile tracks. Like I’ve said on Twitter, I put a ton of weight into lineup position and pit stall position. Elliott has a sub-par pit stall of 21, and is starting 11th in the lineup today.

Kevin Harvick over Chase Elliott (+125): Kevin Harvick is starting 4th in the lineup and has a favorable pit stall of 14. In the past three races at Homestead, Harvick has a better driver rating (106.7 to Elliott’s 96.8) and has two top 5 finishes to Elliot’s one. While Elliott has a better average finishing position than Harvick, the driver rating difference suggests some bad luck may be the cause of Harvick’s lower finishing position. On a track where pit strategy is key, I’ll take Harvick and his team over Elliott any day.

Martin Truex Jr. over Chase Elliott (+130): Martin Truex Jr. is starting 9th in the lineup but has a pit stall of 29. Truex’s driver rating of 112.9 is favorable to Elliott’s and he has an average finish of 5.33 in the last three races here while Elliott has an average finish of 8. He has also led 123 laps compared to Elliott’s 27. A win for Truex is well overdue and he is the king of 1.5-mile tracks, so the value of +130 is incredible.

Kyle Larson over Chase Elliott (+110): Kyle Larson has a favorable pit stall of 16 but is starting 17th in the lineup. Let’s not forget Larson was out of the Cup Series last season, and his last race at Homestead resulted in a DNF after engine failure, which really hurts his average finishing position. With that aside, he has the sixth best driver rating here and is currently running the best equipment of his career being a part of Hendrick Motorsports. I expect Larson to be the best Hendrick driver today.

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O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Picks

Daytona Road Course – 70 laps / 253 miles

This is just the second-ever Cup Series race at the Daytona Road Course.  The first, of course, being won last year by Chase Elliott.  That paired with the fact that he has won the last 4 road course races explains his incredibly low odds of +150.  I am not one to typically pick winners, but for the purpose of these blogs I will offer some insight into who I like to win, while also giving picks for my go-to strategy: matchups.

Winners/Top 3 Finishers:

Chase Elliott (+150):  Usually, the appeal to picking a winner is the high (+) money you get.  You’re not getting that here with Elliott.  In fact, if you want to take him to finish in the top 3 you’re going to have to lay down a lot of juice (or vig) at -200.  With that being said, you have to at least sprinkle some on Elliott to not feel like an idiot when he inevitably comes out on top; much like you had to do with Hamlin last weekend.

Kyle Larson (+3000):  Not the best guy, but a very good driver.  This guy is just too good of a racer to not take the checkered flag at least one time this season and I see it happening sooner rather than later.  He finished 7th in the Duel 1 race and 10th at the Daytona 500.  He has four top 10 finishes at Road Courses in his career and with track position being so important, he’s sitting pretty with the 4th pit stall and a starting position of 8th.  A top 3 finish from Larson is listed at +700, which is great value.

Others to look at (win/top 3): William Byron (+1400/+450) has a 90.5 driver rating at road courses, has four straight top 10 finishes at road courses, and finished 5th in the Busch Clash.  Erik Jones (+5000/+1400) has three top 5 finishes at road courses, finished 8th in the Busch Clash, and has the 5th pit stall.

Matchups:

Fade Allmendinger:  Out of the last 8 Cup Series road course races, Allmendinger has only raced in 3 of them.  He has an average starting position of 5th and an average finishing position of 20th.  Track position is more important in road courses than any other type of track, and AJ will be starting in 34th position with the 25th pit stall.

Brad Keselowski over AJ Allmendinger (+110):  With an average finish of 15.5 in his last 8 road course races and only 1 top 5 finish, it’s clear Keselowski is no road course stud.  However, his road course driver rating of 86.2 shows that his lackluster finishes are perhaps more bad luck than anything else.  Team Penske always builds a competitive car for these tracks, and Keselowski will have an 18 car buffer between him and AJ when the green flag waves.

Kevin Harvick over AJ Allmendinger (+110):  Kevin Harvick has only 2 wins in 43 road course races, but six top 10 finishes in his last nine road course races is no fluke.  Give me Harvick at plus money over a part-timer every day of the week.

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Coke Zero Sugar 400 Picks

This might come as a shock to you all, but I am stationing the Fade Train for NASCAR’s final regular season race. Probably the most frustrating part of taking matchups is when the guys you bet on DNF due to a wreck. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Daytona is guaranteed to have at least one “The Big One”. Statistically, over the past 6 races at Daytona, there has been an average of 16.3 DNFs. Too risky for me to gamble on that.

I have 5 plays for tonight might be the most I’ve had all season, can you tell I’m excited? A little bonus here is that my fantasy football draft order will be decided by the order in which certain drivers finish. I was assigned Brad Keselowski, so let’s go #2! Here we go:

To Win:

Denny Hamlin to win +850: Pretty simple logic here. Denny Hamlin has given Kevin Harvick a run for his money this year as the Cup Series’ best driver. They seem to exchange wins and Harvick won last Sunday. Denny Hamlin also won this year’s Daytona 500 and there has been plenty of repeat/back-to-back winners this season. +850 for Denny Hamlin to win is an incredible payout so you have to at least sprinkle some here.

Top 3 Finish:

Martin Truex Jr. +450: The logic behind this is similar to why I’m taking Denny Hamlin to win. You kind of just have to ride this Truex top 3 train until it derails. He has a top 3 finish in 7 straight races and we’ve seen the odds go from +150 to -150 over that span. +450 for Truex to place top 3 won’t be seen again for quite some time. If you take nothing else, take this.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +500: Like I was saying earlier, Daytona is an insane track with nearly half the field DNFing by the end of the night. Finding anyone with good history at this track is nearly impossible, the best bet is to look for some consistency at least. Ricky has the second best driver rating here which is one of my favorite stats to follow. That same reasoning is why I’ll also be taking Alex Bowman top 3 at +600. He has the third best driver rating and has never DNF’d this track.

Ryan Newman +850: Yeah, I know. Ryan Newman practically died at the Daytona 500 this year. But you know what he also did? He crossed the finish line in 9th place and prior to that crash looked like he was on his way to victory lane. As shocking as it sounds, Newman has the fourth best average finish at Daytona and has not DNF’d in his last 7 races here.

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Picks for Inaugural Race at Daytona Road Course

NASCAR has turned out to be pretty profitable for me. I’m 29-11 and up 22.75 units since NASCAR’s return and I’m hoping to carry that trend through this weekend. Of course, today is the Cup Series’ inaugural race at the Daytona Road Course; I think that this works in the gamblers’ favor. Typically people think knowledge is power and while I agree with that, it can also lead to a lot of overthinking and sometimes sticking to your gut is the best option. So let’s get right into my picks for today.

Fade: Kevin Harvick

  • Ryan Blaney to beat Kevin Harvick +110
  • Denny Hamlin to beat Kevin Harvick +110

With this being the first time any of these guys (except Kyle Busch) have raced the Daytona Road Course, no one is going to know when to hit the brakes and when to let off of the brakes going in and out of the turns. Kevin Harvick has the pole position and the most favorable pit stall. He’s also coming off of back to back wins and is currently the most dominant racer by far. I’m not so sure that the pole position is a good thing in this race; however, because he’s leading a pack of cars into a turn he knows nothing about. I’m essentially banking on Blaney’s past performances on Road Courses (won the inaugural Charlotte Roval race) and Denny Hamlin being the second most dominant racer, combined with Kevin Harvick’s past road course performances.

Let’s go 2-0 today ladies and gentleman!