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CFB Week 8 Picks

Sorry for the late post! Usually like to get these out Wednesday night or Thursday around noon at the latest. I went 2-2 last week, which for me felt like a positive week compared to how the past few weeks had been going. Let’s get into my week 8 picks:

Tulsa -10 at USF, o/u 51 – Friday, 7:30PM on ESPN

Friday night lights! Tulsa is playing just their third game of the season this weekend after having their contest last week against Cincinnati cancelled due to coronavirus issues.  The Golden Hurricanes are 2-0 ATS this season and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  So far this year we’ve seen a very well-balanced and competitive Tulsa team; they very well could have beat Oklahoma State week 1 and they knocked UCF out of the top-25 in their second game of the season.  I expect this team to be fired up for this week after preparing for the Cincinnati game and then having it cancelled on them.

USF is on a 4 game skid, with their only win of the season coming in their week 1 matchup against Citadel.  USF, like Tulsa, has faced two top-25 ranked programs.  However, USF has lost those two contests by a combined score of 80-7 (52-0 v. ND, 28-7 v. Cincy).  With USF losing on average by 14 and Tulsa’s offense finding their groove in the UCF contest, I don’t mind laying 10.

My Pick:  Tulsa -10, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Nebraska at #5 Ohio State -26.5, o/u 67.5 – NOON on FOX

Finally, the B1G is back, although it’s already week 8.  We haven’t even seen Ohio State play this year, but it’s pretty obvious that this season comes down to Clemson, Alabama and the Buckeyes.  With only 8 regular season games this year, I expect Ohio State to have the pedal to the floor the entire way.  They’re not going to have to “wow” us every week to earn their spot (clearly, they’re #5 in the country without playing a game), but I would imagine they’ll want everyone to know just how much of a force they really are.

Ohio State has defeated Nebraska by 40+ points in 3 out of their last 4 matchups.  Nebraska is hoping their offense looks better this year with some more experience under their belt after a disappointing 2019.  However, I still expect the Buckeye D-Line to have their way against Nebraska and Adrian Martinez.  I’d lay a million points here.

My Pick:  Ohio State -26.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Georgia Southern at #25 Coastal Carolina -5.5, o/u 51.5 – NOON on ESPNU

The line on this game has bounced around between 7 and 6 all week and so has my pick on this game.  With the line now sitting at -5.5 I jumped on Coastal Carolina.  Georgia Southern has a great defense ranked 32nd against the pass and 27th against the run.  I think their defense paired with their run first offense is going to make this an incredibly tough game for Coastal Carolina; every possession will matter.  The Chanticleers have a tough task this week especially now being ranked for the first time in school history and trying to keep their perfect record alive.  Their 11th ranked offense should be able to handle Georgia Southern’s defense, but with how shaky college kicking has been, -5.5 feels drastically safer than -6.

My Pick:  Coastal Carolina -5.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Hawaii at Fresno State o/u 66 – 7:30PM

Death, taxes and Hawaii overs.  The fact that Hawaii overs were only 9-6 last season blows my mind; I swear I bet them every week and lost maybe once. I remember taking alternate lines on however high I could go because it was pretty much free money.  

Last season, Hawaii lost to Fresno State 41-38 and we have a rematch this weekend for week 8.  I literally know nothing about either of these teams and that’s how I want it to remain.  I see Hawaii – I take the over.  It’s that simple.

My Pick:  OVER 66, this is my lock of the week.

Texas State at #12 BYU -29, o/u 60.5 – 10:15PM on ESPN

I might just be a little salty here, but last time I saw a big spread from BYU, I took it and I lost.  BYU is coming off of a 43-26 victory over Houston, but that game was much closer than the score makes you believe.  I might be wrong, but in my opinion BYU just hasn’t looked the same since their route of La Tech.  They’re still one of my favorite teams in the country right now, but I don’t think they’re the team they looked like they were in the first 3 weeks.

BYU will absolutely win this game and most likely in blowout fashion, but over four touchdowns is too much for me to lay.  Texas State stinks but them putting up 48 against a UTSA team that BYU failed to even put up 30 on gives me some hope they can stay within 30 here.

My Pick: Texas State +29, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

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CFB Week 7 Picks

After a season’s worst 1-4 last week, I move to 9-16-1 overall. So congratulations to all of you who are 16-9-1! Like I said before, I’m still losing money here so I’m trying my best to get back in the black. Locks are 2-3 this season and will be 3-3 next week. Let’s get into my Week 7 card:

#14 BYU -5 at Houston, o/u 62.5 – Friday, 9:30PM on ESPN

Friday night lights! I’m still big on BYU, even though they failed to put up as many points as they laid last weekend.  It was unrealistic to expect them to keep blowing teams out of the water and last week’s failure to cover has brought me back to earth.  Now, Houston has only played one game.  They turned the ball over 5 times to Tulane, had zero takeaways and still won by 18.  I think that game was more telling about Tulane than it was against Houston, but it was impressive nonetheless.  With Houston only having one matchup under their belt, it’s really hard to try to evaluate them properly.  One thing I do know, is that either team could win this game and both teams have incredibly talented offenses.  I would expect both the Cougars and the…Cougars…to put up 30+ points.  The over is the play.

My Pick:  OVER 62.5, this a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 SMU -6.5 at Tulane, o/u 64.5 – Friday, 6PM on ESPN

I didn’t list this game as my first pick because this is a live-bet-only game.  Tulane is a team that can only play one half.  Which half will it be this weekend? I do not know.  But first, let’s look deeper into this:

Week 1:  Tulane puts up 6 points in the first-half, 21 points in the second-half.

Week 2:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 0 points in the second-half.

Week 3:  Tulane puts up 31 points in the first-half, 35 points in the second-half.

Week 4:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 7 points in the second-half.

So, this week against SMU, if Tulane can put up 20+ points in the first half:  HAMMER SMU second-half, and I mean HAMMER – put your father’s 401k on it.  If Tulane flops in the first-half, sprinkle a little bit on them to win the second-half. Overall, Tulane is not a good football team, hence the “sprinkle” on them to win the second-half. If Tulane puts up 14-20 points in the first half, we may be in no-mans-land and you’ll have to use your best judgement. I’ll probably stay away if that’s the case.

My Pick:  The opposite of what Tulane shows us first-half.

UCF -3 at Memphis, o/u 73.5 – 3:30PM on ABC

UCF has won their last 13 matchups against Memphis, of which the margin of victory has been less than 3 only twice. They’re coming off of a terrible loss against Tulsa where they blew an 18-point lead and snapped a 21-game winning streak at home.  That loss resulted in them going from #11 in the country to unranked.   Memphis is 1-1 in a very strange season.  They beat Arkansas State in the beginning of September, then had a month off, then lost to SMU which led to another week off and now they face the Golden Knights.  Although they have 6th year senior (6th year!?!?) Brady White under center, I think that the inconsistency of their season combined with an angry UCF team will be too much to handle. UCF’s offense will put up points and as long as their defense can put it together for a few drives they should win by at least a touchdown.

My Pick:  UCF -3, this is my lock of the week.

#3 Georgia at #2 Alabama -6, o/u 56.5 – 8PM on CBS

Alabama is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with a sub 7-point spread.  That includes bowl games, so maybe a more relevant stat would be that they are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games when favored by 7 or fewer.  Georgia has really struggled to get going early in games this season, especially week 1 against Arkansas; their up-tempo approach leaves them vulnerable to going down big early against the Crimson Tide.  Alabama’s defense hasn’t looked quite like we’re used to; however, I think that there’s been an overreaction to what we saw them give up to Ole Miss last weekend.  I’m taking Alabama and the under.  56.5 for Georgia/Alabama just feels huge.  This is a pride game, they want to beat each other up, the SEC this year has really looked more like the Big 12 as far as game totals look and I expect these SEC defenses to shine in this game. I just saw that Saban has tested positive for the coronavirus, so this game probably won’t even happen. Time to add one more play to the card!

My Pick:  Alabama -6 and UNDER 56.5, both are a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

The Self-Quarantine Parlay

Games starting at noon and ending around 11PM. The perfect parlay to sit on the couch and watch Week 7 CFB all day. (Only playing if Bama gets cancelled):

Temple, UAB, UCF, UNC +155

South Florida at Temple (NOON), Western Kentucky at UAB (1:30), UCF at Memphis (3:30), UNC at FSU (7:30)

Check out my Twitter for more week 7 picks and new episodes of the Podcast every Friday!

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Max’s College Football Week 5 Picks

#3 Florida (-16.5) over South Carolina

This game feels like a no brainer to me. Coming off of scoring 51 points against Ole Miss last week, I expect the Gators Offense to keep rolling and Kyle Trask to stay hot against South Carolinas secondary.

#4 Georgia (-7.5) Over #7 Auburn

This game feels like a trap game, however Georgia looked like a different team last week after they made the switch from Freshmen D’Wan Mathis to Stetson Bennett. Although Auburn coming off a great win against Kentucky, I expect Bo Nix to have trouble up against one of the top defenses in the country led by Senior Safety Richard LeCounte. Bulldogs with the spread.

LOCK OF THE WEEK #18 Oklahoma (-7.5) Over Iowa State

I like this matchup a lot for Oklahoma. After coming off a brutal lose to Kansas State, I expect the Sooners to bounce back in a big way. Spencer Ratler had a tough time in his first start in conference play, but I expect a big day from him with at least 3 touchdown passes.

Check out the Twitter for more picks and line updates!