Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 10 Picks

I went 2-3 last week after missing the Florida/Mizzou over by HALF of a point. You just hate to see that. You can hear my picks and analysis on last week’s episode of The Vig. Stay tuned for this week’s episode, dropping Friday, which will have some more week 10 picks as well as some NFL picks. Let’s get into my week 10 card:

Kansas at #19 Oklahoma -38, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN

Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS, Kansas is 0-6 ATS.  Kansas has yet to be competitive this year and Oklahoma is returning home, riding a 3-game winning streak.  I think this game is pretty self-explanatory, in that Kansas will continue to be abused by their fellow Big12 opponents and allow for Oklahoma’s backups to get a solid workout in.  

The Jayhawks are losing on average by 30 points and even lost by 44 to BAYLOR.  You’d have to be insane to take Kansas in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma cover this spread in the first half alone.  Lastly, these teams are a combined 9-2-1 when it comes to Over/Unders.  This is a pure numbers game and the numbers tell you to fade Kansas and to take the over.

My Pick:  Oklahoma -38 and over 63, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Rutgers +38 at #3 Ohio State, o/u 65 – 7:30PM on BTN

This game is going to make me hate myself.  Why am I taking two 38-point spreads?  More importantly, why am I taking Rutgers!?  They beat a Michigan State team that went on to beat a Michigan team that most people had high hopes for.  They followed that up with an absolutely heartbreaking called back touchdown off of some crazy laterals, which cost them the ATS win.  Gregg Schiano has this team playing well above their talent level and I expect them to come into this game fired up.  Rutgers defense has done great at holding opponents on third-down and their offense is somehow managing to put points on the board.  They’ll only be able to hang with Ohio State for a quarter or two, but at +38, I think that’s all it’ll take. 

My Pick:  Rutgers +38, this is my lock of the week.

Stanford at #12 Oregon -10.5, o/u 51 – 7:30PM on ABC

If I was smart I’d stay away from the PAC12 for a couple of weeks just to get somewhat of an idea on how things will pan out.  However, it’s week 10 and I’m an Oregon fan, so I’m just gonna dive right in.  Oregon finished the season 12-2 last year and Stanford finished 4-8.  Obviously the Ducks are without Justin Herbert and have had quite a few opt outs.  Stanford has suffered a fairly significant loss of personnel as well. 

People still imagine Chip Kelly’s Oregon team of a high powered offense and while they still do have the ability to run the score up, their defense might be the bread and butter of this team.  They were the ninth ranked defense last year and I expect them to kick it up a notch this year.  I don’t see Stanford’s offense doing enough damage and I think Oregon starts the season off strong at home.

My Pick:  Oregon -10.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#1 Clemson -5.5 at #4 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 7:30PM on NBC

We’ve now seen back-to-back tough showings from Clemson.  They’ve allowed Syracuse to stay in the game for 3 quarters and nearly blew their season last week against Boston College.  Obviously, Trevor Lawrence was out last week.  Unfortunately for them, he’s out this week as well.  I was wondering if Notre Dame may even be favored this week, which they clearly are not.  I expect for all of the money to come in on Notre Dame and I think Vegas wants all of the money to come in on ND.  For that exact reason, I’ll be taking Clemson.  On top of that, Notre Dame just hasn’t impressed me so far this season.  I truly do not know what Notre Dame team we’ll see this weekend and they’ve stumbled against far lesser teams than Clemson.  Clemson will win this game and laying 5.5 isn’t enough to make me feel uncomfortable.

My Pick:  Clemson -5.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

P.S. – look out for Syracuse (+14) to cover, if not beat BC this week.

P.P.S. – check out my Twitter for some live tweeting and other week 10 picks throughout the day.

Posted on Leave a comment

Thrive Fantasy TNF Lineup (ATLvsCAR)

If you didn’t know I am a lifelong Carolina Panthers fan, so I’m pumped to have this Thursday Night Thrive Fantasy Lineup going. 

Thrive Fantasy is where Prop Bets meet Daily Fantasy Sports.  Basically, you pick the “over” or “under” in 10 out of 20 possible player props. Then, points are awarded based on correct picks.  In my contest this week, 1st-13th place takes home some cash and there’s a maximum of only 56 participants.

Use promo code “VIG” when signing up and Thrive will match your deposit up to $50 ($20 minimum).

Here’s my lineup for tonight!  #KeepPounding

Thrive Fantasy NFL TNF Rush

Matt RyanUnder 27.5 Completions = 90 PTS
Todd Gurley IIOver 67.5 Rush Yards = 100 PTS
Todd Gurley IIOver 0.5 Rush TDs = 110 PTS
Julio JonesOver 4.5 Receptions = 80 PTS
Calvin RidleyOver 0.5 Receiving TDs = 115 PTS
Teddy BridgewaterUnder 2.5 Pass TDs + INTs = 85 PTS
Mike DavisOver 0.5 Rush TDs + Rec. TDs = 100 PTS
Robby AndersonOver 71.5 Receiving Yards = 85 PTS
Robby AndersonOver 6.5 Receptions = 110 PTS
Joey SlyeOver 7.5 Points = 100 PTS

Yes, I know. EIGHT overs. Life is too short to take the under and of course I’m going to root for the Panthers to have themselves a night.

Check out my Twitter and the Podcast for mine and J‘s picks and send me your lineups!

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 7 Picks

After a season’s worst 1-4 last week, I move to 9-16-1 overall. So congratulations to all of you who are 16-9-1! Like I said before, I’m still losing money here so I’m trying my best to get back in the black. Locks are 2-3 this season and will be 3-3 next week. Let’s get into my Week 7 card:

#14 BYU -5 at Houston, o/u 62.5 – Friday, 9:30PM on ESPN

Friday night lights! I’m still big on BYU, even though they failed to put up as many points as they laid last weekend.  It was unrealistic to expect them to keep blowing teams out of the water and last week’s failure to cover has brought me back to earth.  Now, Houston has only played one game.  They turned the ball over 5 times to Tulane, had zero takeaways and still won by 18.  I think that game was more telling about Tulane than it was against Houston, but it was impressive nonetheless.  With Houston only having one matchup under their belt, it’s really hard to try to evaluate them properly.  One thing I do know, is that either team could win this game and both teams have incredibly talented offenses.  I would expect both the Cougars and the…Cougars…to put up 30+ points.  The over is the play.

My Pick:  OVER 62.5, this a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 SMU -6.5 at Tulane, o/u 64.5 – Friday, 6PM on ESPN

I didn’t list this game as my first pick because this is a live-bet-only game.  Tulane is a team that can only play one half.  Which half will it be this weekend? I do not know.  But first, let’s look deeper into this:

Week 1:  Tulane puts up 6 points in the first-half, 21 points in the second-half.

Week 2:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 0 points in the second-half.

Week 3:  Tulane puts up 31 points in the first-half, 35 points in the second-half.

Week 4:  Tulane puts up 24 points in the first-half, 7 points in the second-half.

So, this week against SMU, if Tulane can put up 20+ points in the first half:  HAMMER SMU second-half, and I mean HAMMER – put your father’s 401k on it.  If Tulane flops in the first-half, sprinkle a little bit on them to win the second-half. Overall, Tulane is not a good football team, hence the “sprinkle” on them to win the second-half. If Tulane puts up 14-20 points in the first half, we may be in no-mans-land and you’ll have to use your best judgement. I’ll probably stay away if that’s the case.

My Pick:  The opposite of what Tulane shows us first-half.

UCF -3 at Memphis, o/u 73.5 – 3:30PM on ABC

UCF has won their last 13 matchups against Memphis, of which the margin of victory has been less than 3 only twice. They’re coming off of a terrible loss against Tulsa where they blew an 18-point lead and snapped a 21-game winning streak at home.  That loss resulted in them going from #11 in the country to unranked.   Memphis is 1-1 in a very strange season.  They beat Arkansas State in the beginning of September, then had a month off, then lost to SMU which led to another week off and now they face the Golden Knights.  Although they have 6th year senior (6th year!?!?) Brady White under center, I think that the inconsistency of their season combined with an angry UCF team will be too much to handle. UCF’s offense will put up points and as long as their defense can put it together for a few drives they should win by at least a touchdown.

My Pick:  UCF -3, this is my lock of the week.

#3 Georgia at #2 Alabama -6, o/u 56.5 – 8PM on CBS

Alabama is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with a sub 7-point spread.  That includes bowl games, so maybe a more relevant stat would be that they are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games when favored by 7 or fewer.  Georgia has really struggled to get going early in games this season, especially week 1 against Arkansas; their up-tempo approach leaves them vulnerable to going down big early against the Crimson Tide.  Alabama’s defense hasn’t looked quite like we’re used to; however, I think that there’s been an overreaction to what we saw them give up to Ole Miss last weekend.  I’m taking Alabama and the under.  56.5 for Georgia/Alabama just feels huge.  This is a pride game, they want to beat each other up, the SEC this year has really looked more like the Big 12 as far as game totals look and I expect these SEC defenses to shine in this game. I just saw that Saban has tested positive for the coronavirus, so this game probably won’t even happen. Time to add one more play to the card!

My Pick:  Alabama -6 and UNDER 56.5, both are a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

The Self-Quarantine Parlay

Games starting at noon and ending around 11PM. The perfect parlay to sit on the couch and watch Week 7 CFB all day. (Only playing if Bama gets cancelled):

Temple, UAB, UCF, UNC +155

South Florida at Temple (NOON), Western Kentucky at UAB (1:30), UCF at Memphis (3:30), UNC at FSU (7:30)

Check out my Twitter for more week 7 picks and new episodes of the Podcast every Friday!

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 4 Picks

We’re 3-5 on the cfb season so far.  Not great, but it’s early – we’re still learning!  We had one of the worst losses you’ll ever see last week after Tulane blew a 24-0 lead with Navy scoring 27 unanswered, that’s just a loss that you cannot have.  If you follow me on Twitter, you can see the other picks I take throughout the day because 4 is obviously not enough.  Last week I added Troy -2.5 and Miami 1H ML, so in reality I went 4-2 and we’re even on the year, but who’s counting? 

Let’s get into this week’s card.

Middle Tennessee at Texas San Antonio -6.5, o/u 60 – Friday, 8PM on CBSSN

Friday Night Lights! Which means we all have an obligation to bet this game.  Last week, I took Troy -2.5 against Middle Tennessee and it was never in doubt, with Troy coming out on top 47-14.  Middle Tennessee has now lost their first two contests at a combined score of 89-14…yikes.  On the other side, UTSA had an absolute shootout in Week 1 against Texas State winning 51-48 in OT and have found themselves in a hot streak after beating SF Austin 24-10 last week.  The play here seems pretty obvious, 6.5 points is not even close to enough for a team that can hardly manage to score a TD per game.  Middle Tennessee has no run defense (allows 290 yds/gm) and UTSA loves run the ball all over your face (280 yds/gm).  I see this covering easily to start your weekend off right.

My Pick:  UTSA -6.5, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating. I can’t give a lock on Friday night!

#24 Louisville at #21 Pittsburgh -3, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ACCN

I had Pittsburgh -21.5 last week against Syracuse and it was just a disgusting game to watch no matter who you were rooting for.  I hear a lot of hype around Kenny Pickett, but overall I wasn’t very impressed.  His stat line is ok, but watching the game, his decision making was very questionable and he had a lot of bad passes.  He seems like a guy who won’t lose the game for you, but he also won’t win it for you either.  I also had Miami beating Louisville last week which was never close.  I think Miami could be the real deal this year, so I don’t want to look at that game as a major failure by Louisville – they’re just not a major contender while Miami very well could be. 

Malik Cunningham is a playmaker and will see a challenge this week against a stout Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 26 ypg on the ground .  To be fair, Miami’s defense is supposed to be stout as well and Louisville still managed to rack up 34 points.  With Pittsburgh’s offense being lackluster to say the least, I think that Louisville should be able to contain them enough to allow their offensive firepower to be the difference maker.  Louisville should be the favorite in this game. Take the free points if you’re scared of a little juice, but you’re not scared of the juice.

My Pick:  Louisville ML +125, this is my lock of the week.

Mississippi State at #6 LSU -17, o/u 57.5 – 3:30 PM on CBS

Oct 20, 2018; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill (8) is tackled by LSU Tigers defensive end Rashard Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

To nobody’s surprise, LSU has had to do a lot of rebuilding coming into this year.  Of course, when you win a national title you’re going to lose a lot of your guys to the NFL so this is to be expected.  Still, it makes you wonder what exactly we’ll be seeing this year from the Tigers and Coach O.  Mississippi State is now in the Air Raid era of Mike Leach.  For those of you who have been following us from our XFL beginnings, Mike Leach’s mentor is the legendary Hal Mumme (former OC for the Dallas Renegades and the air raid Don). 

LSU’s defense will be put to the test against this Air Raid Offense and I expect Mississippi State to see the endzone a few times.  On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s defense is arguably the worst in the SEC and we all know what LSU is capable of (the over was 10-5 last season).  The over is the play here and I think everyone has their eye on it. (WARNING: The over is 0-5 in these programs last 5 matchups)

My Pick:  Over 57.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma State -7, o/u 51.5 – 3:30 PM on ABC

We really don’t have much to evaluate on West Virginia’s side.  They stomped an FCS team in Eastern Kentucky 56-10, but does that hold any weight? This week will be their first true test of the season and they did have two weeks to prepare, so take that into account more than their beatdown on that poor Eastern Kentucky team. 

Oklahoma State was a major let down for a lot of people last week after only scoring 16 against a Tulsa team they were supposed to blow out.  A win is a win though, so it’s on to the next week and on to West Virginia.  I’m still really high on the Cowboys, but this week is all going to come down to Spencer Sanders health.  He injured his ankle against Tulsa and the offense looked atrocious from that point on. Yes, Chuba Hubbard is an NFL prospect and yes, Tylan Wallace is incredible – BUT, Ethan Bullock is terrible and who knows about Shane Illingworth. If Spencer Sanders is healthy and ready to go, I’ll take Oklahoma State all the way up to -10.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -7, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating*.

*Pending Spencer Sanders’ health.

Check out the Podcast every week for our CFB and NFL picks/analysis!

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 2 Picks

It’s obviously very difficult to know what to expect from any team in the first few games of a season in any sport, but especially college sports because of the amount of turnover you see year-to-year.  So, one of the most important statistics for the first couple of week’s is going to be looking at teams’ returning production. 

Charlotte at Appalachian State -17, o/u59 – Saturday, NOON on ESPN2 

Both of these teams are in the top 30 overall with offensive returning production.  Both teams still have their dual-threat QBs and still have their main receiving corps. Appalachian State is a team that went 13-1 last season with the 9th overall scoring offense averaging 39 ppg. Charlotte is a team that averaged 30 ppg last season and runs a spread offense that really started to click by the end of the year where they won their last 5 conference games.  

On the flip side of this, both of these teams are in the lower half of returning production on defense.  While App State only allowed 20 ppg, they did lose nearly half of their defense so I expect them to take a step back.  Charlotte lost nearly 60% of their defense including their schools all-time leading tackler as well as their all-time sack leader.  A team that allowed over 32 ppg last season could see an even larger number this year.  I see the over hitting pretty easily, the only thing I could see getting in the way is some rain in the forecast to cause some issues in the passing game.

My Pick:  OVER 59

Duke at Notre Dame -19.5, o/u54.5 – Saturday, 2:30PM on NBC

DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 09: Josh Blackwell #31 and Michael Carter II #26 of the Duke Blue Devils chase Ian Book #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish out of bounds during the first quarter of their game at Wallace Wade Stadium on November 09, 2019 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

This is the only game on my card that will have fans in attendance – around 15,000. Notre Dame isn’t known as a particularly tough place to play, so I don’t see the attendance being a factor; but I still thought it was worth noting. These two teams faced off last year and Notre Dame won handily 38-7.   Last year, Duke was a sub .500 team at 5-7 and has seen a pretty big shake up overall, a new QB and 3 new coaches paired with limited time to prepare with coronavirus. They do have a lot of returning talent on the defensive end, but for a team that gave up 30 ppg, I’m not so sure that’s a good thing.  Notre Dame is on their best stretch of football in recent memory and most importantly they’re 24-14-1 ATS in their last 3 seasons.  They have a heisman candidate QB in 5th-year-senior Ian Book who will be working behind 6 returning offensive lineman.  Notre Dame is a playoff hopeful who I can see going 11-1 this year (losing to Clemson).  I’m taking Notre Dame minus the points and expect a similar score to last years matchup.  Some rain in the forecast as well – maybe take a peak at the under.

My Pick:  Notre Dame -19.5

Clemson -33 at Wake Forest, o/u60 – Saturday, 7:30PM on ABC

Oct 6, 2018; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Travis Etienne (9) runs the ball in the first quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at BB&T Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson was 8-1 ATS in conference games last season which includes a 52-3 win over Wake Forest.  A 33 point spread is scary enough, but – something to ease your mind – Clemson was 5-1 ATS last season when the spread was over 30 points.  Clemson is a team that is in the lower-tier of returning production, but of those returning you have the best QB in the nation in Trevor Lawrence, you have Travis Etienne who is probably the best back in the nation and Clemson’s entire defensive line is back.  Wake Forest is the polar opposite.  They lost their quarterback, running back, top 3 receivers and almost their entire offensive line.  If the score wasn’t so outrageous in last years contest I would say to expect an even better showing from the Tigers. I’m taking Clemson -33 and I’m going to take the first half line as well.

My Picks:  Clemson 1H -21 and Clemson -33

Posted on Leave a comment

Picks for Inaugural Race at Daytona Road Course

NASCAR has turned out to be pretty profitable for me. I’m 29-11 and up 22.75 units since NASCAR’s return and I’m hoping to carry that trend through this weekend. Of course, today is the Cup Series’ inaugural race at the Daytona Road Course; I think that this works in the gamblers’ favor. Typically people think knowledge is power and while I agree with that, it can also lead to a lot of overthinking and sometimes sticking to your gut is the best option. So let’s get right into my picks for today.

Fade: Kevin Harvick

  • Ryan Blaney to beat Kevin Harvick +110
  • Denny Hamlin to beat Kevin Harvick +110

With this being the first time any of these guys (except Kyle Busch) have raced the Daytona Road Course, no one is going to know when to hit the brakes and when to let off of the brakes going in and out of the turns. Kevin Harvick has the pole position and the most favorable pit stall. He’s also coming off of back to back wins and is currently the most dominant racer by far. I’m not so sure that the pole position is a good thing in this race; however, because he’s leading a pack of cars into a turn he knows nothing about. I’m essentially banking on Blaney’s past performances on Road Courses (won the inaugural Charlotte Roval race) and Denny Hamlin being the second most dominant racer, combined with Kevin Harvick’s past road course performances.

Let’s go 2-0 today ladies and gentleman!

Posted on Leave a comment

The First of Many

Welcome to The Vig!

As most of you know, The Vig is a sports gambling podcast co-hosted by myself and J.  We cover all major sports, some not-so-major sports and pretty much whatever funny stories of the week are on our mind.  At the end of the day, if you can gamble on it, we cover it.

Lately, we’ve been looking to get some more content out in the best way possible and we figured there’s no better way to get that done than creating our own site.  If you’ve read our previous articles, then you should pretty much know what to expect.  J and I will mainly be posting a ton of gambling picks and our reasons behind them.  We’re both bringing on some of our longtime friends to do some writing for us as well.  In the words of Michael Scott, “They always say that it is a mistake to hire your friends and they are right.  So, I hired my best friends.” 

To be fair this is more of a volunteer job at best on their part, but I’ll squeeze an Office reference anywhere it’ll fit.

On top of bringing some of our friends aboard we’ll als – *glass shatters* Wait, is that Big Zaddy’s music?  That’s right folks, fan-favorite and recurring guest of the program, Big Zaddy will be writing for us as well.  If that doesn’t skyrocket our pageviews, I don’t know what will.

Alongside gambling articles we’ll have fresh new podcasts, general news, hot takes and more.  What I’m most excited about is getting some fresh content out there.  Between my 100-putt-challenge and J’s 3-point-challenge, we’ve got some great videos to come.

Cheers to our day 1 fan’s who are reading this and to our new fans:  Welcome aboard.

For the love of gambling, this is The Vig.