Welcome to the Winners’ Circle ladies and gentlemen. Going 3-2 last week, with how my year has gone thus far, feels like I had the weekend of a lifetime. I cannot wait to be brought back down to earth with this horrible Week 9 slate. Given how many early games I have on my card, be sure to check out my Twitter for more picks throughout the day on Saturday.
Next week, I’ll have my overall records per confidence rating. What’s the point in even having them if I can’t provide data on each one? So stay tuned. Let’s get into my Week 9 Card:
East Carolina at Tulsa -17, o/u 61 – 9PM on ESPN2
Friday night lights, meet Tulsa Football. I’m clearly a big Tulsa guy and at 3-0 ATS this season I’d be a fool to turn away now. I’m more of a “ride streak” guy than I am a “due to lose” guy. Last week I mentioned how well-balanced this Tulsa team is and they showed exactly that in their contest at USF. The Golden Hurricane’s running attack scored four touchdowns while their defense held USF to 2 for 15 on third downs.
As far as common opponents, East Carolina lost their first contest of the season 51-28 to UCF, a team that Tulsa beat 34-26 in early October. East Carolina is probably the worst defense in this conference and are ranked outside of the top 100 for schedule difficulty while Tulsa is top 35. Clearly, Tulsa is the superior team here and I expect them to win by three touchdowns.
My Pick: Tulsa -17, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
Boston College +31 at #1 Clemson, o/u 61 – NOON on ABC
Does Clemson run it up on Boston College after last week’s performance against Syracuse? Will Clemson be looking ahead to next week’s showdown at #4 Notre Dame? Both are very possible, with very different outcomes on the game. Boston College is a respectable 4-2, holding teams to only 25 ppg. Phil Jurkovec and BC’s passing attack have had themselves a great year which I expect to keep them in this game. When I say keep them in this game I mean they’ll probably lose by 28 points. Who cares, that’s a win.
My Pick: Boston College +31, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
Memphis at #7 Cincinnati -7, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ESPN
UCF, SMU and Memphis all seem like the same team to me, in that there isn’t much defense and none of those teams play smash mouth football. Cincinnati has only allowed 12.5 ppg in 4 game this season and score 37 ppg. It’s shocking to me that the #7 team in the country is only a 7 point favorite here, especially when they play such a physical style of football against a team that shouldn’t be able to handle it. I’d expect this week to look like Cincinnati’s first four games. Holding Memphis to 20 or less while putting up over 30.
My Pick: Cincinnati -7, this is my week 9 lock.
Michigan State at #13 Michigan -24.5, o/u 52.5 – NOON on FOX
Rutgers got its first conference win since 2017 last week against MSU. That’s how bad Michigan State is. Now, to defend MSU’s defense, the offense did turn the ball over 7 times, so holding Rutgers to only 38 is almost impressive. Michigan smoked Minnesota last week, but overall it was a weirdly sloppy game. I was still impressed by their performance but the overall sloppiness left a bit to be desired, especially if they want to give Ohio State a run for its money. With that being said, I expect Michigan’s defense to have an even more dominant game this week than they had at Minnesota (5 sacks, 8 TFL). Joe Milton was also impressive for someone I wasn’t very high on. I know I just tried to compliment MSU’s defensive performance last week, but at the end of the day they gave up 38 points to RUTGERS. Michigan should have their way with this MSU team for the third straight year (65-17 combined in their last two matchups).
My Pick: Michigan -24.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
Missouri at #10 Florida -13.5, o/u 61.5 – 7:30 on SECN
I’ll keep this one short and sweet. The Florida Gators’ offense is spectacular, their defense is the furthest thing from spectacular. Their games this year have totaled: 86, 62 and 79. We may very well see over 1,000 yards of offense from this game as both Missouri and Florida average over 400 yards per game. Until shown otherwise, I’m going to assume Florida overs to be automatic.
My Pick: OVER 61.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
New Podcast episodes every Friday for CFB, NFL and more gambling picks! Week 9 CFB and Week 8 NFL this week.