My “make or break” week last week was much more “break” than it was “make”. I went 3-5-1 which puts me at 8-12-1 on the 2020 CFB season heading into Week 6. This is like a 12 car pileup – it’s so bad that you can’t look away. As always, fade at your own risk. Here are my week 6 picks:
Louisville -4.5 at Georgia Tech, o/u 64 – 7PM, Friday on ESPN
Georgia Tech is a team that just squeaked by FSU in their first game of the year and followed that up with back-to-back losses including a 37-20 loss against Syracuse. Giving up 37 points to Syracuse is a bad look for anybody. The Yellow Jackets have a freshman QB in Jeff Simms who has thrown for 2 TDs and 6 INTs in their last two games. On the bright side, he leads the team in rushing yards and their running back duo of Gibbs and Griffin have been running the ball great as well.
Louisville is also coming off of back-to-back losses but after having a bye last week, I think they show up with a little more fire under their belly than Georgia Tech. Malik Cunningham is a ton of fun to watch and can turn any average play into a highlight reel. With the Yellow Jackets allowing over 440 yards of offense, I think that Cunningham and the rest of Louisville’s offense will run away with this one. Only having to lay 4.5 here almost feels wrong.
My Pick: Louisville -4.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
Duke -2 at Syracuse, o/u 51.5 – 12:30PM on ESPN3
The Blue Devils are off to their worst start in 14 years going 0-4 so far this season. Syracuse is coming off of a bye week and had their first win of the season against Georgia Tech the week prior. All-in-all this will be a terribly ugly game and the only reason I’m even touching it is because I don’t think Duke should ever be the favorite, no matter who they play. Syracuse’s offensive line seemed to be somewhat capable against Georgia Tech which allowed Tommy DeVito to have a decent game (194 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). Duke’s pass rush is nothing special so hopefully Syracuse can keep DeVito protected again to help Syracuse win this thing outright. The one (yes, only one) good stat-line I could find between these two bottom-tier teams is that Syracuse has come up with 10 takeaways in 3 games; that could be the difference maker this week for them. Syracuse ML is only +105, so I’m not going to risk a 1 point loss for the potential to win an extra 0.05 units.
My Pick: Syracuse +2, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
UTSA at #15 BYU -34.5, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN2
There is no team in the nation right now that has been playing better than the BYU Cougars. This spread is huge, but BYU has won each of their first three games by at least 31 points. They’re second in the nation in scoring and ypg. Their defense is ranked fourth allowing only 8 ppg and has given up a nation’s best 214.3 total yards per game. BYU can and has done it all this season; you could fill a Book [of Mormon] with what they’re doing right and it’s only been three games.
UTSA is having a great season as well. After becoming the first 3-0 team in the nation, they fell to UAB last week 21-13. They struggled to stop the run against UAB and that could spell major trouble for them in week 6. However, they’re 3rd in the nation in takeaways and we all know how quickly turnovers can change a game. They’ll need their defensive line, which has been dominant, to pressure Zach Wilson to hopefully force a few turnovers. But who am I kidding? That will not happen. BYU is an absolute force and will continue to climb the rankings. 34.5 is a ton of points but you have to lay them here. I can live with BYU not covering; I can’t live backing a Conference USA team versus the hottest team in the nation.
My Pick: BYU -34.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
#7 Miami at #1 Clemson -14, o/u 62.5 – 7:30PM on ABC
Easily the game of the week and potentially the game of the year with the Miami Hurricane’s clashing with the Clemson Tigers on Saturday night. The only thing that could spoil all of the fun is some weather from Tropical Storm Delta. Rain always spoils the fun but more importantly it spoils the over. Pair the rain with a matchup between two top 20 defenses and we have entered Under City. It hurts me to say that since betting the under sucks and we have two of the Heisman favorites facing off, but I can’t bet with my heart here.
D’Eriq King and Trevor Lawrence combine for 14 TDs and 0 INTs. Cam’Ron Harris is averaging over 5 yards per carry for Miami while Travis Etienne is averaging over 6 yards per carry for Clemson. Just an incredible matchup no matter what way you look at it. Clemson is the better team here, but winning by more than two touchdowns against a Miami team that looks like a legit contender seems like a high order. I’ll watch the line or buy half a point to make the spread +14.5 here for Miami.
My Pick: Miami +14.5 and UNDER 62.5, the under is my lock of the week.