Sorry for the late post! Usually like to get these out Wednesday night or Thursday around noon at the latest. I went 2-2 last week, which for me felt like a positive week compared to how the past few weeks had been going. Let’s get into my week 8 picks:
Tulsa -10 at USF, o/u 51 – Friday, 7:30PM on ESPN
Friday night lights! Tulsa is playing just their third game of the season this weekend after having their contest last week against Cincinnati cancelled due to coronavirus issues. The Golden Hurricanes are 2-0 ATS this season and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. So far this year we’ve seen a very well-balanced and competitive Tulsa team; they very well could have beat Oklahoma State week 1 and they knocked UCF out of the top-25 in their second game of the season. I expect this team to be fired up for this week after preparing for the Cincinnati game and then having it cancelled on them.
USF is on a 4 game skid, with their only win of the season coming in their week 1 matchup against Citadel. USF, like Tulsa, has faced two top-25 ranked programs. However, USF has lost those two contests by a combined score of 80-7 (52-0 v. ND, 28-7 v. Cincy). With USF losing on average by 14 and Tulsa’s offense finding their groove in the UCF contest, I don’t mind laying 10.
My Pick: Tulsa -10, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
Nebraska at #5 Ohio State -26.5, o/u 67.5 – NOON on FOX
Finally, the B1G is back, although it’s already week 8. We haven’t even seen Ohio State play this year, but it’s pretty obvious that this season comes down to Clemson, Alabama and the Buckeyes. With only 8 regular season games this year, I expect Ohio State to have the pedal to the floor the entire way. They’re not going to have to “wow” us every week to earn their spot (clearly, they’re #5 in the country without playing a game), but I would imagine they’ll want everyone to know just how much of a force they really are.
Ohio State has defeated Nebraska by 40+ points in 3 out of their last 4 matchups. Nebraska is hoping their offense looks better this year with some more experience under their belt after a disappointing 2019. However, I still expect the Buckeye D-Line to have their way against Nebraska and Adrian Martinez. I’d lay a million points here.
My Pick: Ohio State -26.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
Georgia Southern at #25 Coastal Carolina -5.5, o/u 51.5 – NOON on ESPNU
The line on this game has bounced around between 7 and 6 all week and so has my pick on this game. With the line now sitting at -5.5 I jumped on Coastal Carolina. Georgia Southern has a great defense ranked 32nd against the pass and 27th against the run. I think their defense paired with their run first offense is going to make this an incredibly tough game for Coastal Carolina; every possession will matter. The Chanticleers have a tough task this week especially now being ranked for the first time in school history and trying to keep their perfect record alive. Their 11th ranked offense should be able to handle Georgia Southern’s defense, but with how shaky college kicking has been, -5.5 feels drastically safer than -6.
My Pick: Coastal Carolina -5.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
Hawaii at Fresno State o/u 66 – 7:30PM
Death, taxes and Hawaii overs. The fact that Hawaii overs were only 9-6 last season blows my mind; I swear I bet them every week and lost maybe once. I remember taking alternate lines on however high I could go because it was pretty much free money.
Last season, Hawaii lost to Fresno State 41-38 and we have a rematch this weekend for week 8. I literally know nothing about either of these teams and that’s how I want it to remain. I see Hawaii – I take the over. It’s that simple.
My Pick: OVER 66, this is my lock of the week.
Texas State at #12 BYU -29, o/u 60.5 – 10:15PM on ESPN
I might just be a little salty here, but last time I saw a big spread from BYU, I took it and I lost. BYU is coming off of a 43-26 victory over Houston, but that game was much closer than the score makes you believe. I might be wrong, but in my opinion BYU just hasn’t looked the same since their route of La Tech. They’re still one of my favorite teams in the country right now, but I don’t think they’re the team they looked like they were in the first 3 weeks.
BYU will absolutely win this game and most likely in blowout fashion, but over four touchdowns is too much for me to lay. Texas State stinks but them putting up 48 against a UTSA team that BYU failed to even put up 30 on gives me some hope they can stay within 30 here.
My Pick: Texas State +29, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.