I went 2-3 last week after missing the Florida/Mizzou over by HALF of a point. You just hate to see that. You can hear my picks and analysis on last week’s episode of The Vig. Stay tuned for this week’s episode, dropping Friday, which will have some more week 10 picks as well as some NFL picks. Let’s get into my week 10 card:
Kansas at #19 Oklahoma -38, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN
Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS, Kansas is 0-6 ATS. Kansas has yet to be competitive this year and Oklahoma is returning home, riding a 3-game winning streak. I think this game is pretty self-explanatory, in that Kansas will continue to be abused by their fellow Big12 opponents and allow for Oklahoma’s backups to get a solid workout in.
The Jayhawks are losing on average by 30 points and even lost by 44 to BAYLOR. You’d have to be insane to take Kansas in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma cover this spread in the first half alone. Lastly, these teams are a combined 9-2-1 when it comes to Over/Unders. This is a pure numbers game and the numbers tell you to fade Kansas and to take the over.
My Pick: Oklahoma -38 and over 63, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
Rutgers +38 at #3 Ohio State, o/u 65 – 7:30PM on BTN
This game is going to make me hate myself. Why am I taking two 38-point spreads? More importantly, why am I taking Rutgers!? They beat a Michigan State team that went on to beat a Michigan team that most people had high hopes for. They followed that up with an absolutely heartbreaking called back touchdown off of some crazy laterals, which cost them the ATS win. Gregg Schiano has this team playing well above their talent level and I expect them to come into this game fired up. Rutgers defense has done great at holding opponents on third-down and their offense is somehow managing to put points on the board. They’ll only be able to hang with Ohio State for a quarter or two, but at +38, I think that’s all it’ll take.
My Pick: Rutgers +38, this is my lock of the week.
Stanford at #12 Oregon -10.5, o/u 51 – 7:30PM on ABC
If I was smart I’d stay away from the PAC12 for a couple of weeks just to get somewhat of an idea on how things will pan out. However, it’s week 10 and I’m an Oregon fan, so I’m just gonna dive right in. Oregon finished the season 12-2 last year and Stanford finished 4-8. Obviously the Ducks are without Justin Herbert and have had quite a few opt outs. Stanford has suffered a fairly significant loss of personnel as well.
People still imagine Chip Kelly’s Oregon team of a high powered offense and while they still do have the ability to run the score up, their defense might be the bread and butter of this team. They were the ninth ranked defense last year and I expect them to kick it up a notch this year. I don’t see Stanford’s offense doing enough damage and I think Oregon starts the season off strong at home.
My Pick: Oregon -10.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
#1 Clemson -5.5 at #4 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 7:30PM on NBC
We’ve now seen back-to-back tough showings from Clemson. They’ve allowed Syracuse to stay in the game for 3 quarters and nearly blew their season last week against Boston College. Obviously, Trevor Lawrence was out last week. Unfortunately for them, he’s out this week as well. I was wondering if Notre Dame may even be favored this week, which they clearly are not. I expect for all of the money to come in on Notre Dame and I think Vegas wants all of the money to come in on ND. For that exact reason, I’ll be taking Clemson. On top of that, Notre Dame just hasn’t impressed me so far this season. I truly do not know what Notre Dame team we’ll see this weekend and they’ve stumbled against far lesser teams than Clemson. Clemson will win this game and laying 5.5 isn’t enough to make me feel uncomfortable.
My Pick: Clemson -5.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
P.S. – look out for Syracuse (+14) to cover, if not beat BC this week.
P.P.S. – check out my Twitter for some live tweeting and other week 10 picks throughout the day.