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CFB Week 10 Picks

I went 2-3 last week after missing the Florida/Mizzou over by HALF of a point. You just hate to see that. You can hear my picks and analysis on last week’s episode of The Vig. Stay tuned for this week’s episode, dropping Friday, which will have some more week 10 picks as well as some NFL picks. Let’s get into my week 10 card:

Kansas at #19 Oklahoma -38, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN

Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS, Kansas is 0-6 ATS.  Kansas has yet to be competitive this year and Oklahoma is returning home, riding a 3-game winning streak.  I think this game is pretty self-explanatory, in that Kansas will continue to be abused by their fellow Big12 opponents and allow for Oklahoma’s backups to get a solid workout in.  

The Jayhawks are losing on average by 30 points and even lost by 44 to BAYLOR.  You’d have to be insane to take Kansas in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma cover this spread in the first half alone.  Lastly, these teams are a combined 9-2-1 when it comes to Over/Unders.  This is a pure numbers game and the numbers tell you to fade Kansas and to take the over.

My Pick:  Oklahoma -38 and over 63, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Rutgers +38 at #3 Ohio State, o/u 65 – 7:30PM on BTN

This game is going to make me hate myself.  Why am I taking two 38-point spreads?  More importantly, why am I taking Rutgers!?  They beat a Michigan State team that went on to beat a Michigan team that most people had high hopes for.  They followed that up with an absolutely heartbreaking called back touchdown off of some crazy laterals, which cost them the ATS win.  Gregg Schiano has this team playing well above their talent level and I expect them to come into this game fired up.  Rutgers defense has done great at holding opponents on third-down and their offense is somehow managing to put points on the board.  They’ll only be able to hang with Ohio State for a quarter or two, but at +38, I think that’s all it’ll take. 

My Pick:  Rutgers +38, this is my lock of the week.

Stanford at #12 Oregon -10.5, o/u 51 – 7:30PM on ABC

If I was smart I’d stay away from the PAC12 for a couple of weeks just to get somewhat of an idea on how things will pan out.  However, it’s week 10 and I’m an Oregon fan, so I’m just gonna dive right in.  Oregon finished the season 12-2 last year and Stanford finished 4-8.  Obviously the Ducks are without Justin Herbert and have had quite a few opt outs.  Stanford has suffered a fairly significant loss of personnel as well. 

People still imagine Chip Kelly’s Oregon team of a high powered offense and while they still do have the ability to run the score up, their defense might be the bread and butter of this team.  They were the ninth ranked defense last year and I expect them to kick it up a notch this year.  I don’t see Stanford’s offense doing enough damage and I think Oregon starts the season off strong at home.

My Pick:  Oregon -10.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#1 Clemson -5.5 at #4 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 7:30PM on NBC

We’ve now seen back-to-back tough showings from Clemson.  They’ve allowed Syracuse to stay in the game for 3 quarters and nearly blew their season last week against Boston College.  Obviously, Trevor Lawrence was out last week.  Unfortunately for them, he’s out this week as well.  I was wondering if Notre Dame may even be favored this week, which they clearly are not.  I expect for all of the money to come in on Notre Dame and I think Vegas wants all of the money to come in on ND.  For that exact reason, I’ll be taking Clemson.  On top of that, Notre Dame just hasn’t impressed me so far this season.  I truly do not know what Notre Dame team we’ll see this weekend and they’ve stumbled against far lesser teams than Clemson.  Clemson will win this game and laying 5.5 isn’t enough to make me feel uncomfortable.

My Pick:  Clemson -5.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

P.S. – look out for Syracuse (+14) to cover, if not beat BC this week.

P.P.S. – check out my Twitter for some live tweeting and other week 10 picks throughout the day.

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CFB Week 4 Picks

We’re 3-5 on the cfb season so far.  Not great, but it’s early – we’re still learning!  We had one of the worst losses you’ll ever see last week after Tulane blew a 24-0 lead with Navy scoring 27 unanswered, that’s just a loss that you cannot have.  If you follow me on Twitter, you can see the other picks I take throughout the day because 4 is obviously not enough.  Last week I added Troy -2.5 and Miami 1H ML, so in reality I went 4-2 and we’re even on the year, but who’s counting? 

Let’s get into this week’s card.

Middle Tennessee at Texas San Antonio -6.5, o/u 60 – Friday, 8PM on CBSSN

Friday Night Lights! Which means we all have an obligation to bet this game.  Last week, I took Troy -2.5 against Middle Tennessee and it was never in doubt, with Troy coming out on top 47-14.  Middle Tennessee has now lost their first two contests at a combined score of 89-14…yikes.  On the other side, UTSA had an absolute shootout in Week 1 against Texas State winning 51-48 in OT and have found themselves in a hot streak after beating SF Austin 24-10 last week.  The play here seems pretty obvious, 6.5 points is not even close to enough for a team that can hardly manage to score a TD per game.  Middle Tennessee has no run defense (allows 290 yds/gm) and UTSA loves run the ball all over your face (280 yds/gm).  I see this covering easily to start your weekend off right.

My Pick:  UTSA -6.5, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating. I can’t give a lock on Friday night!

#24 Louisville at #21 Pittsburgh -3, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ACCN

I had Pittsburgh -21.5 last week against Syracuse and it was just a disgusting game to watch no matter who you were rooting for.  I hear a lot of hype around Kenny Pickett, but overall I wasn’t very impressed.  His stat line is ok, but watching the game, his decision making was very questionable and he had a lot of bad passes.  He seems like a guy who won’t lose the game for you, but he also won’t win it for you either.  I also had Miami beating Louisville last week which was never close.  I think Miami could be the real deal this year, so I don’t want to look at that game as a major failure by Louisville – they’re just not a major contender while Miami very well could be. 

Malik Cunningham is a playmaker and will see a challenge this week against a stout Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 26 ypg on the ground .  To be fair, Miami’s defense is supposed to be stout as well and Louisville still managed to rack up 34 points.  With Pittsburgh’s offense being lackluster to say the least, I think that Louisville should be able to contain them enough to allow their offensive firepower to be the difference maker.  Louisville should be the favorite in this game. Take the free points if you’re scared of a little juice, but you’re not scared of the juice.

My Pick:  Louisville ML +125, this is my lock of the week.

Mississippi State at #6 LSU -17, o/u 57.5 – 3:30 PM on CBS

Oct 20, 2018; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill (8) is tackled by LSU Tigers defensive end Rashard Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

To nobody’s surprise, LSU has had to do a lot of rebuilding coming into this year.  Of course, when you win a national title you’re going to lose a lot of your guys to the NFL so this is to be expected.  Still, it makes you wonder what exactly we’ll be seeing this year from the Tigers and Coach O.  Mississippi State is now in the Air Raid era of Mike Leach.  For those of you who have been following us from our XFL beginnings, Mike Leach’s mentor is the legendary Hal Mumme (former OC for the Dallas Renegades and the air raid Don). 

LSU’s defense will be put to the test against this Air Raid Offense and I expect Mississippi State to see the endzone a few times.  On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s defense is arguably the worst in the SEC and we all know what LSU is capable of (the over was 10-5 last season).  The over is the play here and I think everyone has their eye on it. (WARNING: The over is 0-5 in these programs last 5 matchups)

My Pick:  Over 57.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma State -7, o/u 51.5 – 3:30 PM on ABC

We really don’t have much to evaluate on West Virginia’s side.  They stomped an FCS team in Eastern Kentucky 56-10, but does that hold any weight? This week will be their first true test of the season and they did have two weeks to prepare, so take that into account more than their beatdown on that poor Eastern Kentucky team. 

Oklahoma State was a major let down for a lot of people last week after only scoring 16 against a Tulsa team they were supposed to blow out.  A win is a win though, so it’s on to the next week and on to West Virginia.  I’m still really high on the Cowboys, but this week is all going to come down to Spencer Sanders health.  He injured his ankle against Tulsa and the offense looked atrocious from that point on. Yes, Chuba Hubbard is an NFL prospect and yes, Tylan Wallace is incredible – BUT, Ethan Bullock is terrible and who knows about Shane Illingworth. If Spencer Sanders is healthy and ready to go, I’ll take Oklahoma State all the way up to -10.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -7, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating*.

*Pending Spencer Sanders’ health.

Check out the Podcast every week for our CFB and NFL picks/analysis!