Las Vegas Motor Speedway – 267 laps / 400.5 miles
Winner/Top 3 Finisher:
Joey Logano (+600): Joey is currently the best active driver at this track as far as average finishing position goes (8.40). In his last six races here, he has two wins, one of which was last year’s Pennzoil 400. Back-to-back seems only right for Logano here. He has looked strong all season and after three first-time winners, I think we see one of the big dogs come back to claim victory lane.
Fade Kyle Busch: Kyle has the fifth-best average finish at this track in recent races (previous 6 races). Although that statistic makes you feel weary about fading him today, his driver rating of 95.8 ranks eighth, which is a little reassuring. With the 14th starting position and 23rd pit stall, I think that’s more than enough of a messy situation to give him a hard time today. Finally, let’s be honest, Kyle has not looked like himself in over a year at this point; he is probably still over-valued.
Ryan Blaney over Kyle Busch (+115): Blaney has not looked like himself through the first three weeks of this season. With that being said, he statistically is a very good 1.5-mile racer. At this track specifically, he is right behind Kyle Busch in average finish in recent races. He also has a favorable driver rating of 99.6. While he is starting in 26th position, he has a great pit stall at #3.
William Byron over Kyle Busch (+115): It might just be recency bias but Byron is certainly trending in the right direction. Hendrick Motorsports has clearly put a lot of trust into Byron and for good reason; he has arguably been the best driver on that team this season. He has a poor average finish in recent races here of 22.33, but this is a new season and seemingly a better driver. To top it off, he’s starting in the front row and has the all-important first pit stall. He’ll ride the high coming off of last week’s win and have a good race today (better than KyBusch).
Alex Bowman over Kyle Busch (+120): Bowman ranks eighth in average finishes here in recent races and has a respectable driver rating of 89.1. He’s starting 9th in the lineup and while he has the 37th pit stall, the 36th is vacant. Having a clear path to exit your pit stall is a huge advantage. So far this season he has finished in the top ten in two out of three possible races. I like that trend to continue and expect him to out race Kyle Busch today.