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CFB Week 4 Picks

We’re 3-5 on the cfb season so far.  Not great, but it’s early – we’re still learning!  We had one of the worst losses you’ll ever see last week after Tulane blew a 24-0 lead with Navy scoring 27 unanswered, that’s just a loss that you cannot have.  If you follow me on Twitter, you can see the other picks I take throughout the day because 4 is obviously not enough.  Last week I added Troy -2.5 and Miami 1H ML, so in reality I went 4-2 and we’re even on the year, but who’s counting? 

Let’s get into this week’s card.

Middle Tennessee at Texas San Antonio -6.5, o/u 60 – Friday, 8PM on CBSSN

Friday Night Lights! Which means we all have an obligation to bet this game.  Last week, I took Troy -2.5 against Middle Tennessee and it was never in doubt, with Troy coming out on top 47-14.  Middle Tennessee has now lost their first two contests at a combined score of 89-14…yikes.  On the other side, UTSA had an absolute shootout in Week 1 against Texas State winning 51-48 in OT and have found themselves in a hot streak after beating SF Austin 24-10 last week.  The play here seems pretty obvious, 6.5 points is not even close to enough for a team that can hardly manage to score a TD per game.  Middle Tennessee has no run defense (allows 290 yds/gm) and UTSA loves run the ball all over your face (280 yds/gm).  I see this covering easily to start your weekend off right.

My Pick:  UTSA -6.5, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating. I can’t give a lock on Friday night!

#24 Louisville at #21 Pittsburgh -3, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ACCN

I had Pittsburgh -21.5 last week against Syracuse and it was just a disgusting game to watch no matter who you were rooting for.  I hear a lot of hype around Kenny Pickett, but overall I wasn’t very impressed.  His stat line is ok, but watching the game, his decision making was very questionable and he had a lot of bad passes.  He seems like a guy who won’t lose the game for you, but he also won’t win it for you either.  I also had Miami beating Louisville last week which was never close.  I think Miami could be the real deal this year, so I don’t want to look at that game as a major failure by Louisville – they’re just not a major contender while Miami very well could be. 

Malik Cunningham is a playmaker and will see a challenge this week against a stout Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 26 ypg on the ground .  To be fair, Miami’s defense is supposed to be stout as well and Louisville still managed to rack up 34 points.  With Pittsburgh’s offense being lackluster to say the least, I think that Louisville should be able to contain them enough to allow their offensive firepower to be the difference maker.  Louisville should be the favorite in this game. Take the free points if you’re scared of a little juice, but you’re not scared of the juice.

My Pick:  Louisville ML +125, this is my lock of the week.

Mississippi State at #6 LSU -17, o/u 57.5 – 3:30 PM on CBS

Oct 20, 2018; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill (8) is tackled by LSU Tigers defensive end Rashard Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

To nobody’s surprise, LSU has had to do a lot of rebuilding coming into this year.  Of course, when you win a national title you’re going to lose a lot of your guys to the NFL so this is to be expected.  Still, it makes you wonder what exactly we’ll be seeing this year from the Tigers and Coach O.  Mississippi State is now in the Air Raid era of Mike Leach.  For those of you who have been following us from our XFL beginnings, Mike Leach’s mentor is the legendary Hal Mumme (former OC for the Dallas Renegades and the air raid Don). 

LSU’s defense will be put to the test against this Air Raid Offense and I expect Mississippi State to see the endzone a few times.  On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s defense is arguably the worst in the SEC and we all know what LSU is capable of (the over was 10-5 last season).  The over is the play here and I think everyone has their eye on it. (WARNING: The over is 0-5 in these programs last 5 matchups)

My Pick:  Over 57.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma State -7, o/u 51.5 – 3:30 PM on ABC

We really don’t have much to evaluate on West Virginia’s side.  They stomped an FCS team in Eastern Kentucky 56-10, but does that hold any weight? This week will be their first true test of the season and they did have two weeks to prepare, so take that into account more than their beatdown on that poor Eastern Kentucky team. 

Oklahoma State was a major let down for a lot of people last week after only scoring 16 against a Tulsa team they were supposed to blow out.  A win is a win though, so it’s on to the next week and on to West Virginia.  I’m still really high on the Cowboys, but this week is all going to come down to Spencer Sanders health.  He injured his ankle against Tulsa and the offense looked atrocious from that point on. Yes, Chuba Hubbard is an NFL prospect and yes, Tylan Wallace is incredible – BUT, Ethan Bullock is terrible and who knows about Shane Illingworth. If Spencer Sanders is healthy and ready to go, I’ll take Oklahoma State all the way up to -10.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -7, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating*.

*Pending Spencer Sanders’ health.

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