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US Open Preview and Picks

The US Open is finally upon us. Originally scheduled in June we’ve had to wait a long three months for the event to finally take place. Rumor has it they haven’t cut the rough in those three months (no not really.) Winged Foot will however play extremely difficult if you cannot stay in the short grass. John Rahm was quoted earlier in the week “I don’t see any of us shooting under par. Or if we shoot under par, it would be someone winning by a lot”. That’s what we have instore for us this week. They are calling it “your fathers US open,” the last time the US Open was played at Winged Foot in 2006, Geoff Ogilvy captured the US Open trophy with a final score of +5. It’s going to take a mentally tough true grinder to pull out a win this week, and I for one cannot wait to feel better about my golf game as I watch all these guys struggle.

The Picks

Top 20

Harris English (+275). As I stated earlier, being mentally tough and avoiding a complete implosion will be key this weekend with the playing conditions. English is one of the best players in the world when it comes to digging himself out of trouble. 6th on tour in scrambling and 9th on scrambling from the rough. He has finished outside the top 23 just once in his last 9 tournaments and outside the top 20 twice. He’s in good form and has the ability to get himself out of trouble. +275 is a good number for a guy with those attributes.

Top 10

Tommy Fleetwood (+350). There might not be a guy who likes playing in the northeast more than Tommy Fleetwood. When he came back stateside after the break, he spent his quarantine on Long Island brushing up his game at Shinnecock. The same course in which he shot an astounded -7 on Sunday of the 2018 US open to finish one shot off the lead. There is something about Majors that seems to bring this guys game to the next level. With a second at the open championship last year to go with his runner up finish in 2018 I like him for a top 10 this week. I would consider taking him to win if he didn’t play overseas last week, and may have some jet lag/rust in the early rounds. He’s a candidate to place a wager on mid tournament if his game looks sharp early.

Top 5/Winner

Tony Finau (Top 5 +650, Winner +4000). I’ve been burned by Finau in the past, but he is just too good to lose faith in him. 11th on tour in tee to green makes me believe he should stay out of trouble. When he does get in trouble he is 51st in scrambling (no not a great number but good enough if he limits mistakes). Having placed top 5 in all 4 of the Major tournaments (Masters 2019, PGA 2020, US Open 2018, Open 2019) in his career the pressure clearly doesn’t get to him. The resume is too good to pass up the talent at +4000.

Xander Schauffele (Top 5 +350, Winner +1500) This guy loves Majors. Much like Finau he has success at all 4 events without capturing a victory. He has played in 12 Majors in his career and has accumulated 6 top tens and 4 top 5s. His favorite out of those tournaments? The US Open where he has finished no worse than 6th in his short career (3 tournaments). The US Open is traditionally a very difficult setup. When you look at his numbers it’s easy to see why he has success. 7th on tour tee to green and 2nd in scrambling. It’s hard to beat a guy who doesn’t get in trouble, and can get out of it when he’s there. Last time out he won the 72 score at the Tour championship and I think he keeps rolling this week and finally gets that illusive Major.

Listen to the full PGA breakdown as well as all our football picks for the weekend on this week’s podcast. And follow us on twitter for in tournament picks throughout the weekend.

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BMW Championship Preview and Picks

The FedEx Cup heads to Olympia Fields Country Club for the BMW Championship and the second round of the playoffs. Dustin Johnson ran with the Northern Trust last weeks shooting -30 and shattering the previous TPC Boston 72 Hole record by 8 strokes. With the field down to 70 players there will be no cut this week so all picks will have a shot to have a hot weekend and contend. That being said the small field also means deflation in odds across the board.

The Picks

Top 20

Maverick McNealy (+450), With the last PGA event at Olympia Fields being the 2003 U.S. Open there is not a lot of data for who plays well at this course. McNealy did however win back to back events here in college at the Fighting Illini Invite in 2014/2015. He has 2 top 10s in his last 6 tournaments. And a little fun fact, the last PGA event at Olympia Fields on any tour was won by his girlfriend Danielle Kang at the 2017 women’s PGA Championship. Needless to say if they ever get married this will be the location.

Top 10

Collin Morikawa (+400), Coming off only his second career missed cut some people might be down on Morikawa. I think it was more of just a slight hangover after his incredible win at the PGA Championship. He has the numbers I am looking for to play well at this course. His strokes gained off the tee rank 3rd and he is 2nf in approach. Both those numbers will play a huge role in determining the outcome of this tournament. The last time he missed a cut? He won the WorkDay Charity Open by beating world #1 Justin Thomas in a playoff. +400 is a great number to get for him top 10.

Winner

Justin Thomas (.5U top 5 +275 .5U winner +1200) As I previously stated strokes gained tee to green will play a big role in deciding who wins this tournament and no one in the world is better at it than JT. He is Coming off of 2 poor performances by his standards a 32nd at the PGA and a 49th last week. That was enough to increase value just enough for me to take him as the third favorite to win this week.

Xander Schauffele (.5U top 5 +300 .5U winner +1500) Since the return he has yet to miss a cut, 3 top 10s, finished worse than 25th once, and he is 5th on tour in Strokes gained tee to green. This guy has done everything but win a tournament, and its going to happen sooner or later. His game suits this course and he is going to win a tournament sooner or later. I think this is the week.

Listen to our Podcast weekly for the full BMW Championship breakdown, as well as other gambling news and picks.

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The Northern Trust Picks

The PGA tour rolls into TPC Boston as it hosts the Northern Trust for the first round of the FedEx Cup. The top 125 players will square with the top 70 in points (regular season and Northern Trust) moving on to round two next week. The remaining 55? better luck next year. TPC Boston hosted the second stage of the tournament in 2018 won by Bryson DeChambeau. The Par 71 course has hosted 16 events. Of the events the world number 1 has won twice, and 11 winners were ranked in the top 15. Moral of the story, longshots probably not a good play for outright winners. Last weeks picks went 3-2 for a combined +6.35U. We look to continue the hot streak.

The Picks

Top 20

Zach Johnson (+450) had to play his way into the playoff field in last weeks Wyndham Championship. After just clearing the cut line he went on to shoot 61,65 over the weekend to finish T7. He also had had a great opening round at the PGA Championship before falling apart day two to miss the cut. Throw in an 11th place finish at the travelers and the value of +450 for a top 20 and im sold.

Denny McCarthy (+600), getting the flatstick rolling will always play a major part in winning golf tournaments, and no one is better than this man. Literally he is ranked first on tour in strokes gained putting. He uses that skillset to rank 15th in birdie average. The average score to win at TPC Boston is -17 so birdies will have to come often to keep pace. Denny has 4 top 10s and 6 top 20s this year, and is coming off a T9 last week.

Top 10

Adam Scott (+450) won the first tournament at TPC Boston in 2003 and followed that up with a T2 in 2004. In total he has 6 top 10 finishes. Rust might be a concern as he has only played once since the return. The one start, however, was a T22 at the PGA Championship. Much like Webb SImpson last week his game seems to be built for this course. I considered taking him to win at +4500 as well but settled in at a top 10.

Winner

Jason Day .5u (+2000) .5U top 5(+450), When I picked him to win the PGA two weeks ago I outlined how he has been playing arguably the best golf of his career. He fell just short as he couldn’t make enough putts and finished T4. He is usually a very solid putter and I expect him to be much better this week. He is another guy who has had success at this course with a T2,T3,and T7th on his resume. Day was a former world number 1 and I expect him to get back to winning tournaments sooner than later.

Tony Finau .5U(+3500).5U top 5(+600), as I stated earlier winners on this course typically come from the top 15 players in the world. Finau is currently ranked 15th. He had a T4 last week T3 at the 3M, and an 8Th place finish at the Memorial. This guy has done everything but win a tournament. It feels like his time is coming and at +3500 the value is there for me to take him this week.

That Wraps it up for the Northern Trust. Check back next week for the BMW Championship picks.

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Wyndham Championship Picks

This week the PGA tour heads to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship. This is the last stop on tour before the FedEx Cup playoffs begin. There will be a group of guys vying for the final playoff spots this weekend which will make Sunday must watch TV. before we get into this weeks picks lets recap last weeks PGA Championship Picks

Top 20

Henrik Norlander (+380) has 6 top 25s this year, and 3 in his last 4 tournaments. He was not in the field last week at the PGA Championship, but I do not believe that will have an effect on the way he has been playing. Ranked 64th in the FedEx standings he will be looking to stay in the top 70 this week and +380 is just too good to pass up.

Top 10 

Doc Redman (.5u +600) is another young gun on tour and maybe it’s his turn to get his first career win. Born in Chapel Hill, and attending college at Clemson University this is a bit of a homecoming for Doc. I think the current setup with no fans is a major plus for a young guy on tour. He gets to play his hometown tournament without the added pressure of all the friends and family there to watch it live.

Si Woo Kim (.5u +450) had a rough start after the tour restarted missing the first two cuts putting him way behind in the FedEx Cup rankings. Since then he has gone on to make 7 straight cuts including a 13th place finish last week and an 18th at the Memorial (Arguably the two toughest fields since the return) he has climbed up to 121 in fed ex cup needs a good tournament to stay inside the top 125. A player trending the right way as well as a 5th place finish in last years Wyndham Championship is enough for me to lay half a unit on him +450.

Winner

Webb Simpson (+1100) There are a few rules in gambling. Bet home dogs, if a teams mascot dies take them regardless of matchup, and if a player names a child after an event put your life savings on it! Thats how dominants Simpson has been at this tournament. In the last 10 tournaments here he has 8 top 11s. Last three tournaments 2nd, 2nd, 3rd; throw in a win in 2011, and he has the best resume by far in this weeks field. Not only does he have the resume for this tournament, but he’s playing some of the best golf of his career. He has 6 top 10’s in 11 events played and was ranked 4th in the world last week (his highest world ranking. Mix all that together with the fact that he named his daughter Wyndham because of his success in this tournament, and you have your winner. Im also going to take him top 5 at +310 because more money is always better.