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Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Picks

Atlanta Motor Speedway – 325 laps / 500 miles

The past four races here have been dominated by two drivers: Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.  This is a worn-down track, which the drivers love, but that means track position is more important than ever.  Tires are huge here and much like every other 1.5-mile track, whoever has the best pit strategy will take the checkered flag.  Martin Truex Jr. blew it last night in the Xfinity Series race due to a late-race speeding penalty.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone beat themselves today in similar fashion.  Let’s get into my picks:

Winner/Top 3:

William Byron (+1200/+450):  Am I a little biased? Yes.  But, that’s ok.  How am I biased? Check out next week’s podcast to see why.  He has only raced here three times with a best finish of 17th.  However, he already has a win this season on a similar track and Hendrick Motorsports is the hottest team in racing.  He’ll be competitive today at the least.


Tail Byron:  Am I a little biased? Yes.  We’re tailing instead of fading this week.  William has finished 8th, 8th, and 1st in the only intermediate tacks this season.  He’s trending up and seems to be getting better every week.  He more or less started the #FadeTrain and every once in a while respects must be paid.  He also has the 6th pit stall today, with an easy entry due to the 7th pit stall being vacant, and he is starting inside the top 10.  Time to go all in on Byron this week.

William Byron over Joey Logano (+115):  Logano only has two top 5s in his fourteen career races here.  He has an average finish of 13 in recent races at this track, and Penske doesn’t seem to have their 1.5-mile package figured out.  They look great on the short-run but fall of in the long-run.  To top it off, I would expect Keselowski to be the guy on Team Penske this week.

William Byron over Kyle Busch (+130):  I hate Kyle Busch and I hate even more that he is known as “Rowdy”.  He’s coming off a third-place finish at the most recent 1.5-mile track of Vegas, but finished last week 25th, and 10th at Homestead – where Byron won.  He has the 29th pit stall and is starting in the 19th position.

William Byron over Ryan Blaney (+115):  Ryan Blaney is the antithesis of Kyle Busch here; I’m a big fan.  He actually is trending in the right direction with back-to-back top 10s after a slow start to the season.  However, Keselowski is the Penske guy today.  In only five career races here, Blaney finishes on average 16.20.  Looking back to Homestead, which to me is a good indicator for other 1.5-mile tracks, he finished 29th.

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Instacart 500 Picks

Phoenix Raceway – 312 laps / 312 miles

Today the Instacart 500 gives us our first 1-mile track of the season; thank god, because these 1.5-mile tracks stink.  Joey Logano is looking to go back-to-back at the spring race in Phoenix while Chase Elliott is looking to go back-to-back after winning the Cup Series Championship here in November.  It’s hard to feel overly confident about any research I do considering this is the first 1-mile track race of this season, only the fifth race overall, and each of those races has had an unexpected winner.  I’ll continue to give a pick for who will take the checkered flag, but remember my bread and butter is the Fade Train (which went 0-3 last week to go 5-3 thus far on the season).  Let’s get into it.


Denny Hamlin (+550): Denny has the third-best driver rating at Phoenix Raceway in the last six races and he has also led nearly 10% of all laps in that span.  He’ll be starting in the front row today after Larson was kicked to the back and he has the second pit stall which will come in huge towards the end of the race.  With three top 5s in four races this season, I think it’s just a matter of time before we see him take the checkered flag.


Fade Kyle Larson:  While Larson has the third-best average finish in recent races here, he only has the eighth-best driver rating.  Coming off of a huge win, I can see this being a letdown spot for him, if that’s even a thing in racing.  I feel even more confident in fading Larson after learning he was kicked to the back of the lineup with his teammate William Byron (team Hendrick crumbling?).

Martin Truex Jr. over Kyle Larson (+130):  Truex has the eighth-best average finish compared to Larson’s third-best, but has a favorable driver rating of 97 to Larson’s 96.5. He’ll be starting in the second row today and while the 33rd pit stall is not ideal, he has an easy exit out of his stall with a gap between him and the 32nd stall.

Joey Logano over Kyle Larson (EVEN):  Like I said earlier, Logano is looking to go back-to-back in the spring race here in Phoenix.  He has a favorable driver rating of 98.6, he’ll be starting in the fourth row, and he has and easy entry into pit stall 9 which is arguably more important than an easy exit (which Larson has in pit stall 5).

Kyle Busch over Kyle Larson (+110):  It’s hard to find a track where Kyle isn’t leading all races in pretty much every statistic.  This track is no different from the rest.  Busch has the best average finish here in recent races (3.33), he has two wins in the last 6 races, and has a driver rating of 125.9.  I faded Kyle last week and it looked great for 95% of the race, but Busch ended up finishing strong.  Maybe the curse of last year is over.  He’s starting in the 3rd row and has the 16th pit stall with 2 vacant stalls in front of him.

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Pennzoil 400 Picks

Las Vegas Motor Speedway – 267 laps / 400.5 miles

Winner/Top 3 Finisher:

Joey Logano (+600): Joey is currently the best active driver at this track as far as average finishing position goes (8.40). In his last six races here, he has two wins, one of which was last year’s Pennzoil 400. Back-to-back seems only right for Logano here. He has looked strong all season and after three first-time winners, I think we see one of the big dogs come back to claim victory lane.


Fade Kyle Busch: Kyle has the fifth-best average finish at this track in recent races (previous 6 races). Although that statistic makes you feel weary about fading him today, his driver rating of 95.8 ranks eighth, which is a little reassuring. With the 14th starting position and 23rd pit stall, I think that’s more than enough of a messy situation to give him a hard time today. Finally, let’s be honest, Kyle has not looked like himself in over a year at this point; he is probably still over-valued.

Ryan Blaney over Kyle Busch (+115): Blaney has not looked like himself through the first three weeks of this season. With that being said, he statistically is a very good 1.5-mile racer. At this track specifically, he is right behind Kyle Busch in average finish in recent races. He also has a favorable driver rating of 99.6. While he is starting in 26th position, he has a great pit stall at #3.

William Byron over Kyle Busch (+115): It might just be recency bias but Byron is certainly trending in the right direction. Hendrick Motorsports has clearly put a lot of trust into Byron and for good reason; he has arguably been the best driver on that team this season. He has a poor average finish in recent races here of 22.33, but this is a new season and seemingly a better driver. To top it off, he’s starting in the front row and has the all-important first pit stall. He’ll ride the high coming off of last week’s win and have a good race today (better than KyBusch).

Alex Bowman over Kyle Busch (+120): Bowman ranks eighth in average finishes here in recent races and has a respectable driver rating of 89.1. He’s starting 9th in the lineup and while he has the 37th pit stall, the 36th is vacant. Having a clear path to exit your pit stall is a huge advantage. So far this season he has finished in the top ten in two out of three possible races. I like that trend to continue and expect him to out race Kyle Busch today.

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Dixie Vodka 400 Picks

Homestead – Miami Speedway – 267 laps / 400 miles

Winners/Top 3 Finishers:

Kyle Larson (+700): Larson has never won at Homestead. He was having a great race his last outing here until a blown engine caused a DNF. His last five races at Homestead resulted in: DNF, 13th, 2nd, and 5th. He also has the sixth best driver rating out of all active drivers at this track. +700 odds isn’t spectacular value, but like I said last week, this guy is too good to not win one sooner rather than later (please be sooner because I can’t bet on you every week).


I had three potential fades this week: Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, or Chase Elliott. I only pick plus money on matchups because I don’t think there is any value in matchup favorites. With Bowman and Ku. Busch being the 10th and 15th favorites to win, respectively, finding any good plus money against them is just about impossible. That leaves me to fade the second-favorite-to-win Chase Elliott.

Fade Elliott: Chase has a pretty good track record at Homestead (pun), but his overall track record on 1.5-mile tracks is not great. In fact, everyone in the top 10 of odds-to-win today, besides Bowman, have a better average finish and driver rating than Elliott at 1.5 mile tracks. Like I’ve said on Twitter, I put a ton of weight into lineup position and pit stall position. Elliott has a sub-par pit stall of 21, and is starting 11th in the lineup today.

Kevin Harvick over Chase Elliott (+125): Kevin Harvick is starting 4th in the lineup and has a favorable pit stall of 14. In the past three races at Homestead, Harvick has a better driver rating (106.7 to Elliott’s 96.8) and has two top 5 finishes to Elliot’s one. While Elliott has a better average finishing position than Harvick, the driver rating difference suggests some bad luck may be the cause of Harvick’s lower finishing position. On a track where pit strategy is key, I’ll take Harvick and his team over Elliott any day.

Martin Truex Jr. over Chase Elliott (+130): Martin Truex Jr. is starting 9th in the lineup but has a pit stall of 29. Truex’s driver rating of 112.9 is favorable to Elliott’s and he has an average finish of 5.33 in the last three races here while Elliott has an average finish of 8. He has also led 123 laps compared to Elliott’s 27. A win for Truex is well overdue and he is the king of 1.5-mile tracks, so the value of +130 is incredible.

Kyle Larson over Chase Elliott (+110): Kyle Larson has a favorable pit stall of 16 but is starting 17th in the lineup. Let’s not forget Larson was out of the Cup Series last season, and his last race at Homestead resulted in a DNF after engine failure, which really hurts his average finishing position. With that aside, he has the sixth best driver rating here and is currently running the best equipment of his career being a part of Hendrick Motorsports. I expect Larson to be the best Hendrick driver today.

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O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Picks

Daytona Road Course – 70 laps / 253 miles

This is just the second-ever Cup Series race at the Daytona Road Course.  The first, of course, being won last year by Chase Elliott.  That paired with the fact that he has won the last 4 road course races explains his incredibly low odds of +150.  I am not one to typically pick winners, but for the purpose of these blogs I will offer some insight into who I like to win, while also giving picks for my go-to strategy: matchups.

Winners/Top 3 Finishers:

Chase Elliott (+150):  Usually, the appeal to picking a winner is the high (+) money you get.  You’re not getting that here with Elliott.  In fact, if you want to take him to finish in the top 3 you’re going to have to lay down a lot of juice (or vig) at -200.  With that being said, you have to at least sprinkle some on Elliott to not feel like an idiot when he inevitably comes out on top; much like you had to do with Hamlin last weekend.

Kyle Larson (+3000):  Not the best guy, but a very good driver.  This guy is just too good of a racer to not take the checkered flag at least one time this season and I see it happening sooner rather than later.  He finished 7th in the Duel 1 race and 10th at the Daytona 500.  He has four top 10 finishes at Road Courses in his career and with track position being so important, he’s sitting pretty with the 4th pit stall and a starting position of 8th.  A top 3 finish from Larson is listed at +700, which is great value.

Others to look at (win/top 3): William Byron (+1400/+450) has a 90.5 driver rating at road courses, has four straight top 10 finishes at road courses, and finished 5th in the Busch Clash.  Erik Jones (+5000/+1400) has three top 5 finishes at road courses, finished 8th in the Busch Clash, and has the 5th pit stall.


Fade Allmendinger:  Out of the last 8 Cup Series road course races, Allmendinger has only raced in 3 of them.  He has an average starting position of 5th and an average finishing position of 20th.  Track position is more important in road courses than any other type of track, and AJ will be starting in 34th position with the 25th pit stall.

Brad Keselowski over AJ Allmendinger (+110):  With an average finish of 15.5 in his last 8 road course races and only 1 top 5 finish, it’s clear Keselowski is no road course stud.  However, his road course driver rating of 86.2 shows that his lackluster finishes are perhaps more bad luck than anything else.  Team Penske always builds a competitive car for these tracks, and Keselowski will have an 18 car buffer between him and AJ when the green flag waves.

Kevin Harvick over AJ Allmendinger (+110):  Kevin Harvick has only 2 wins in 43 road course races, but six top 10 finishes in his last nine road course races is no fluke.  Give me Harvick at plus money over a part-timer every day of the week.

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CFB Week 15 Picks

Hello, week 15! I went 3-2 last week to move to 33-30-1 on the season. Not terrible all things considered. With only 2 more weeks of regular season and then on to bowl season, we need to widen this gap. Check out the Podcast for more picks and follow me on Twitter for College Basketball picks and more! Let’s get into my week 15 card:

#11 Oklahoma -14 at WVU, o/u 56.5 – NOON on ABC

Oklahoma has won their last 8 contests against West Virginia and has put up 40+ points in 7 of those 8 games.  This year OU is averaging over 43 points per game so I expect that trend to continue and although you think of offense when you look at Oklahoma, their defense has turned into a force in the last month.  They’ve only allowed 12 ppg in their last 3 and I don’t see any indicators of them letting up.  West Virginia has been surprisingly stout on defense this year allowing just over 20 ppg which is probably why the spread is just 14 in this game.  While WVU has held some ranked opponents to 20 or less, they are coming off of an absolute beat down by Iowa State and Oklahoma is a different beast.

My Pick:  Oklahoma -14, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Navy at Army (-7), o/u38 – 3PM on CBS

Of course I have to make a play in this game.  These games usually are wildly boring but everyone just shuts up and loves it because, America.  This year’s contest is being played at West Point for the first time since 1943, which is pretty cool.  Home field advantage for the Black Knights and at first-glance you should expect Army (7-2) to beat Navy (3-6) pretty handily.  However, Army has faced 3 FCS opponents and when you look at Army and Navy’s only common opponent, we see quite the contrast.  Tulane smoked Army 38-12, while Navy scored 27 unanswered points in a 27-24 comeback victory against Tulane.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see Navy win this game outright. With all of that being said, I think the smartest play here is the under.  The last 6 Army/Navy game totals have been 38 or under.  I want to see 2 passes from Navy and 18 total punts.  That’s what America is all about.

My Pick:  Navy +7 and UNDER 38, these are both 3 out of 5 confidence ratings.  I’m also sprinkling some Navy ML +220.

#22 Oklahoma State (-5) at Baylor, o/u 49 – 7PM on ESPNU

Oklahoma State has fallen off a cliff.  They’ve lost 3 out of their last 5 and my once sharp play of Oklahoma State +700 to win the Big XII has now blown up in my face.  Both of these teams are coming off of losses to Oklahoma, with Baylor’s loss being far more respectable.  While Oklahoma State isn’t who I thought they were, I still think they’re levels above Baylor.  Neither of these teams score or give up over 30 ppg so maybe 5 points is a bigger task than it appears on the surface, but at the end of the day I believe in Ok State’s defense and their offense has the ability to drop 40 on anyone.  One last ride with the Cowboy’s.  I’ll see you again.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -5, this is my lock of week 15.

Fresno State (-11.5) at New Mexico, o/u 60 – 10:30PM on FS1

Picking the top games of the week can get exhausting and I can’t think of a better way to cap off my Saturday night than by watching the Bulldogs versus the Lobos.  Also, what is a Lobos? Or what are Lobos? According to google it’s a timber wolf.  So the Bulldogs versus the Timber Wolves.  Both of these teams have lost to Hawaii and Nevada, and in similar fashion.  Fresno State did handle Utah State while New Mexico lost to USU by 14.  The deciding factor in this game for me is the quarterback play.  Fresno State’s Jake Haener has been phenomenal for them in this short season while New Mexico is a mess.  The Lobos are looking at having a true-freshman, walk-on quarterback in Isaiah Chavez after Connor Genal, another freshman, went down with a wrist injury.  Off that situation, paired with Bulldogs vs. Timber wolves, the choice is clear.

My Pick:  Fresno State -11.5, this is a 2 out of 5 confidence rating.

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CFB Week 14 Picks

Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving – we are back! I’m now 30-28-1 on the season which is the first time I’ve been over .500 all year. It’s better to get hot late than never get hot at all! Not the best slate this weekend but that’s ok because it’s being made up for having the game of the year in BYU @ Coastal Carolina. Let’s get into my Week 14 Card:

#5 Texas A&M (-7) at Auburn, o/u 49 – NOON on ESPN

I haven’t taken A&M seriously all year and for no real reason.  I think it’s probably because it’s the SEC so I think of Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida before them.  But they’re 6-1 on the year, #5 in the country and a real contender for the CFP.  They’ve covered every game where they’re less than 10 point favorites, Auburn is 0-2 as underdogs ATS.  Auburn has really struggled against the better teams in the SEC, 7 points is nothing here so it’s time I put some respek on The Aggies name.  Also, everything about this game screams under – Bo Nix, A&M’s defense, Auburn’s 1-7 o/u’s, low total, and that’s why I’m going to take the over.  

My picks: A&M -7 and OVER 49.  These are 3 out of 5 confidence ratings.

Syracuse (+34) at #2 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 2:30PM on NBC

Syracuse lost earlier this season to Clemson by 26 and haven’t lost by over 34 yet.  Something about Syracuse football just screams spoiler to me and it 100% is because they beat Clemson in 2017.  Nearly every stat for both Syracuse and Notre Dame matches up.  PPG scored and PPG allowed, rushing and passing yards gained vs allowed are roughly the same.  So if this is an average game for both of these teams we should expect around a 37-17 game.  34 is a lot of points and I think Syracuse is a team where 34 makes you feel even better.

My Pick:  Syracuse +34, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

#13 BYU (-10) at #18 Coastal Carolina, o/u 61 – 5:30 PM on ESPNU

This is by far my most anticipated game of the week.  I was excited for Liberty at CC regardless, but BYU has been by far my favorite team to watch this season, with CC a close second.  Coastal Carolina just keeps winning.  I remember when they were ranked for the first time in program history early this year and everyone was expecting them to crumble under the pressure.  Fast forward to week 14 and they’re 9-0 and now hosting College Gameday for the first time.  Good teams win, great teams cover and CC is 7-1-1 ATS this year.  On the other side, BYU is 6-2-1 ATS.  I think that the difference maker in this game is going to be BYU’s defense and Tyler Allgeier being an absolute force in the running game.  Unfortunately I don’t see either of these teams having a CFP chance, but a win here is huge for either program.  I hate to do it, but I love to do it, I’m rolling with the Stormin’ Mormons.

My Pick:  BYU -10, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Baylor at #11 Oklahoma (-22), o/u 62.5 – 8PM on FOX

I said a couple of weeks ago that Oklahoma wasn’t really back because they played a few terrible teams and then they waxed Oklahoma State.  So, hand up I was wrong and Oklahoma is definitely back.  I even see people coming up with scenarios where Oklahoma makes the CFP, but I dont see that happening.  They’re 6-2 ATS and Baylor is 2-4-1.  Baylor is a team that casual fans would be very disappointed in because they were one game away from being in the playoffs.  But they lost a ton of players and a lot of their coaching staff, which is showing to put it lightly.  They won their first game v Kansas, lost 5 straight, then just beat K. State.  So basically if you’re not a Kansas team you can chalk your matchup against Baylor as a win.  While they havent been getting blown out, I think they’re significantly worse than Oklahoma State who Oklahoma just beat 41-13.  Like I said, Oklahoma is back.

My Pick:  Oklahoma -22, this is my lock of the week.

Check out more week 14 picks on my Twitter and listen to more picks on the Podcast, new episodes every Friday!

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CFB Week 12 Picks

Back to back 4-1 weeks!  24-25-1 overall and I’m officially back in this thing.  Let’s get over the hump this week.  Also, my apologies for not writing an article last week, but if you are here from Reddit, you should have seen my picks there; you can also hear my picks on the Podcast.  Last week’s slate was the worst of the year and while this week looks better, I’m still not finding myself thrilled about any of these matchups.  Regardless, let’s get in to my week 12 card:

Appalachian State at #15 Coastal Carolina (-5.5), o/u 48 – NOON on ESPN2

I was pumped for the Coastal game last week against Troy and heartbroken when it got cancelled.  Coastal Carolina coming out of nowhere and making a ton of noise has made them one of my favorite teams to follow this season – right alongside BYU, for similar reasons (CC’s teal field is a nice touch as well).  So far this season, Coastal Carolina’s dominance on both sides of the ball is what has made them a legitimately good program; not a gimmicky one who just seems to win by scoring 80 points per game.  They’re 15th overall in Total Defense and 37th overall in Total Offense.

Appalachian State is comparable in that sense (21st overall Total Defense, 31st overall Total Offense), but they’ve had a few bumps in the road.  While Coastal has never failed to show up, Appalachian State couldn’t beat a very good Marshall team and just squeaked out a 17-13 win last week against a Georgia State team that Coastal defeated 51-0. I see this Coastal Carolina team continuing their undefeated streak and I don’t think 5.5 is enough.

My Pick:  Coastal Carolina -5.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#7 Cincinnati (-6) at UCF, o/u 64 – 3:30PM on ESPN

I was dead wrong last week picking ECU to cover against Cincinnati.  I like Cincinnati as a program, I just thought the ECU could hang around while Cincinnati might be getting in their own head about an undefeated season.  Clearly I was wrong and hopefully that won’t come back to bite me this week.

Cincy has been an absolute money-maker this year, going 5-2 ATS.  UCF at 2-5 ATS, is quite literally a money-shredder.  What worries me in this game is that UCF is an offensive powerhouse, averaging over 620 yards per game.  UCF nearly allows as many yards per game on defense (448) that Cincinnati averages on offense (470), yet they score enough to where it doesn’t even matter.  Don’t forget that UCF was also #11 in the country before they went on a bit of a skid following a tough loss to Tulsa (Football).

A perfect season and the CFP looming over Cincinnati’s head still worries me. However, Cincinnati’s defense is for real and they have shown no mercy to lesser opponents all year.  That’s the type of stuff you love to see, especially from a college program.  UCF’s powerhouse offense will be tamed by Cincinnati’s stingy defense and the Bearcats will not slow down no matter the score.

My Pick: Cincinnati -6, this is my week 12 lock.

#14 Oklahoma State at #18 Oklahoma (-7), o/u 59.5 – 7:30 on ABC

The Bedlam Series.  Oklahoma currently leads this series 89-17 all-time and is on a 5-game winning streak.  You might as well throw all of that out of the window this season with how good Oklahoma State has been.  If not for a tough OT loss to Texas, we would probably be talking about them as the likely #4 seed in the CFP.  Which, by the way, I don’t think any Big12 team has a chance at seeing now.

The breakdown of this matchup seems pretty simple:  Oklahoma has the edge offensively, while Oklahoma State has the edge defensively.  I thought I would just look at some common opponents to get a better understanding of what to expect.

Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma Sooners
Kansas, W 47-7Kansas, W 69-3
Texas, L 34-41 OTTexas, W 53-45 4OT
Kansas State, W 20-18Kansas State, L 35-38
Iowa State, W 24-21Iowa State, L 30-37

Oklahoma has looked like themselves the last few weeks, but look at the opponents:  Kansas (0-7), Texas Tech (3-5) and TCU (3-4).  I am still a believer in the Cowboys even though they lost to Texas and we haven’t seen them in action in two weeks.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State +7, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#20 USC (-3) at Utah, o/u 58 – 10:30PM on ESPN

Like I said earlier, this week really isn’t moving the needle for me.  I don’t like USC and Utah hasn’t even played their first game of the season (it’s week 12!).  Why am I even touching this game?  It’s probably the Oregon fan in me needing a PAC12 game on my card.  It’s also probably the Oregon fan in me that is going to take USC -3 in hopes that they can go undefeated to face Oregon in the PAC12 Championship and hopefully give the Ducks a playoff birth.

I wish I had more of an analysis for you here but the main element I’m looking at is simply 2 games to none.  USC has played 2 games and has 2 wins.  Utah has yet to see the field. Also, considering USC has the most returning production in the PAC12 while Utah has the least, laying only 3 feels like a bargain.  I’ll also take the over.  Because, PAC12.

My Picks:  USC -3 and OVER 58.  These are both 3 out of 5 confidence ratings.

Follow me on Twitter for more week 12 picks and let me hear it about what I got wrong. See you all next week!

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CFB Week 10 Picks

I went 2-3 last week after missing the Florida/Mizzou over by HALF of a point. You just hate to see that. You can hear my picks and analysis on last week’s episode of The Vig. Stay tuned for this week’s episode, dropping Friday, which will have some more week 10 picks as well as some NFL picks. Let’s get into my week 10 card:

Kansas at #19 Oklahoma -38, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN

Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS, Kansas is 0-6 ATS.  Kansas has yet to be competitive this year and Oklahoma is returning home, riding a 3-game winning streak.  I think this game is pretty self-explanatory, in that Kansas will continue to be abused by their fellow Big12 opponents and allow for Oklahoma’s backups to get a solid workout in.  

The Jayhawks are losing on average by 30 points and even lost by 44 to BAYLOR.  You’d have to be insane to take Kansas in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma cover this spread in the first half alone.  Lastly, these teams are a combined 9-2-1 when it comes to Over/Unders.  This is a pure numbers game and the numbers tell you to fade Kansas and to take the over.

My Pick:  Oklahoma -38 and over 63, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Rutgers +38 at #3 Ohio State, o/u 65 – 7:30PM on BTN

This game is going to make me hate myself.  Why am I taking two 38-point spreads?  More importantly, why am I taking Rutgers!?  They beat a Michigan State team that went on to beat a Michigan team that most people had high hopes for.  They followed that up with an absolutely heartbreaking called back touchdown off of some crazy laterals, which cost them the ATS win.  Gregg Schiano has this team playing well above their talent level and I expect them to come into this game fired up.  Rutgers defense has done great at holding opponents on third-down and their offense is somehow managing to put points on the board.  They’ll only be able to hang with Ohio State for a quarter or two, but at +38, I think that’s all it’ll take. 

My Pick:  Rutgers +38, this is my lock of the week.

Stanford at #12 Oregon -10.5, o/u 51 – 7:30PM on ABC

If I was smart I’d stay away from the PAC12 for a couple of weeks just to get somewhat of an idea on how things will pan out.  However, it’s week 10 and I’m an Oregon fan, so I’m just gonna dive right in.  Oregon finished the season 12-2 last year and Stanford finished 4-8.  Obviously the Ducks are without Justin Herbert and have had quite a few opt outs.  Stanford has suffered a fairly significant loss of personnel as well. 

People still imagine Chip Kelly’s Oregon team of a high powered offense and while they still do have the ability to run the score up, their defense might be the bread and butter of this team.  They were the ninth ranked defense last year and I expect them to kick it up a notch this year.  I don’t see Stanford’s offense doing enough damage and I think Oregon starts the season off strong at home.

My Pick:  Oregon -10.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#1 Clemson -5.5 at #4 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 7:30PM on NBC

We’ve now seen back-to-back tough showings from Clemson.  They’ve allowed Syracuse to stay in the game for 3 quarters and nearly blew their season last week against Boston College.  Obviously, Trevor Lawrence was out last week.  Unfortunately for them, he’s out this week as well.  I was wondering if Notre Dame may even be favored this week, which they clearly are not.  I expect for all of the money to come in on Notre Dame and I think Vegas wants all of the money to come in on ND.  For that exact reason, I’ll be taking Clemson.  On top of that, Notre Dame just hasn’t impressed me so far this season.  I truly do not know what Notre Dame team we’ll see this weekend and they’ve stumbled against far lesser teams than Clemson.  Clemson will win this game and laying 5.5 isn’t enough to make me feel uncomfortable.

My Pick:  Clemson -5.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

P.S. – look out for Syracuse (+14) to cover, if not beat BC this week.

P.P.S. – check out my Twitter for some live tweeting and other week 10 picks throughout the day.

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Thrive Fantasy TNF Lineup (ATLvsCAR)

If you didn’t know I am a lifelong Carolina Panthers fan, so I’m pumped to have this Thursday Night Thrive Fantasy Lineup going. 

Thrive Fantasy is where Prop Bets meet Daily Fantasy Sports.  Basically, you pick the “over” or “under” in 10 out of 20 possible player props. Then, points are awarded based on correct picks.  In my contest this week, 1st-13th place takes home some cash and there’s a maximum of only 56 participants.

Use promo code “VIG” when signing up and Thrive will match your deposit up to $50 ($20 minimum).

Here’s my lineup for tonight!  #KeepPounding

Thrive Fantasy NFL TNF Rush

Matt RyanUnder 27.5 Completions = 90 PTS
Todd Gurley IIOver 67.5 Rush Yards = 100 PTS
Todd Gurley IIOver 0.5 Rush TDs = 110 PTS
Julio JonesOver 4.5 Receptions = 80 PTS
Calvin RidleyOver 0.5 Receiving TDs = 115 PTS
Teddy BridgewaterUnder 2.5 Pass TDs + INTs = 85 PTS
Mike DavisOver 0.5 Rush TDs + Rec. TDs = 100 PTS
Robby AndersonOver 71.5 Receiving Yards = 85 PTS
Robby AndersonOver 6.5 Receptions = 110 PTS
Joey SlyeOver 7.5 Points = 100 PTS

Yes, I know. EIGHT overs. Life is too short to take the under and of course I’m going to root for the Panthers to have themselves a night.

Check out my Twitter and the Podcast for mine and J‘s picks and send me your lineups!