Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 6 Picks

My “make or break” week last week was much more “break” than it was “make”. I went 3-5-1 which puts me at 8-12-1 on the 2020 CFB season heading into Week 6. This is like a 12 car pileup – it’s so bad that you can’t look away. As always, fade at your own risk. Here are my week 6 picks:

Louisville -4.5 at Georgia Tech, o/u 64 – 7PM, Friday on ESPN

Georgia Tech is a team that just squeaked by FSU in their first game of the year and followed that up with back-to-back losses including a 37-20 loss against Syracuse.  Giving up 37 points to Syracuse is a bad look for anybody.  The Yellow Jackets have a freshman QB in Jeff Simms who has thrown for 2 TDs and 6 INTs in their last two games.  On the bright side, he leads the team in rushing yards and their running back duo of Gibbs and Griffin have been running the ball great as well.  

Louisville is also coming off of back-to-back losses but after having a bye last week, I think they show up with a little more fire under their belly than Georgia Tech.  Malik Cunningham is a ton of fun to watch and can turn any average play into a highlight reel.  With the Yellow Jackets allowing over 440 yards of offense, I think that Cunningham and the rest of Louisville’s offense will run away with this one.  Only having to lay 4.5 here almost feels wrong.

My Pick:  Louisville -4.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Duke -2 at Syracuse, o/u 51.5 – 12:30PM on ESPN3

The Blue Devils are off to their worst start in 14 years going 0-4 so far this season.  Syracuse is coming off of a bye week and had their first win of the season against Georgia Tech the week prior.  All-in-all this will be a terribly ugly game and the only reason I’m even touching it is because I don’t think Duke should ever be the favorite, no matter who they play.  Syracuse’s offensive line seemed to be somewhat capable against Georgia Tech which allowed Tommy DeVito to have a decent game (194 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT).  Duke’s pass rush is nothing special so hopefully Syracuse can keep DeVito protected again to help Syracuse win this thing outright. The one (yes, only one) good stat-line I could find between these two bottom-tier teams is that Syracuse has come up with 10 takeaways in 3 games; that could be the difference maker this week for them.  Syracuse ML is only +105, so I’m not going to risk a 1 point loss for the potential to win an extra 0.05 units.

My Pick:  Syracuse +2, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

UTSA at #15 BYU -34.5, o/u 63 – 3:30PM on ESPN2

There is no team in the nation right now that has been playing better than the BYU Cougars.  This spread is huge, but BYU has won each of their first three games by at least 31 points.  They’re second in the nation in scoring and ypg.  Their defense is ranked fourth allowing only 8 ppg and has given up a nation’s best 214.3 total yards per game.  BYU can and has done it all this season; you could fill a Book [of Mormon] with what they’re doing right and it’s only been three games.

UTSA is having a great season as well.  After becoming the first 3-0 team in the nation, they fell to UAB last week 21-13.  They struggled to stop the run against UAB and that could spell major trouble for them in week 6.  However, they’re 3rd in the nation in takeaways and we all know how quickly turnovers can change a game. They’ll need their defensive line, which has been dominant, to pressure Zach Wilson to hopefully force a few turnovers.  But who am I kidding?  That will not happen.  BYU is an absolute force and will continue to climb the rankings.  34.5 is a ton of points but you have to lay them here.  I can live with BYU not covering; I can’t live backing a Conference USA team versus the hottest team in the nation.

My Pick:  BYU -34.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

#7 Miami at #1 Clemson -14, o/u 62.5 – 7:30PM on ABC

Easily the game of the week and potentially the game of the year with the Miami Hurricane’s clashing with the Clemson Tigers on Saturday night.  The only thing that could spoil all of the fun is some weather from Tropical Storm Delta.  Rain always spoils the fun but more importantly it spoils the over.  Pair the rain with a matchup between two top 20 defenses and we have entered Under City.  It hurts me to say that since betting the under sucks and we have two of the Heisman favorites facing off, but I can’t bet with my heart here. 

D’Eriq King and Trevor Lawrence combine for 14 TDs and 0 INTs.  Cam’Ron Harris is averaging over 5 yards per carry for Miami while Travis Etienne is averaging over 6 yards per carry for Clemson.  Just an incredible matchup no matter what way you look at it. Clemson is the better team here, but winning by more than two touchdowns against a Miami team that looks like a legit contender seems like a high order.  I’ll watch the line or buy half a point to make the spread +14.5 here for Miami.

My Pick:  Miami +14.5 and UNDER 62.5, the under is my lock of the week.

Check out my Twitter for more week 6 picks throughout the day and check out the Podcast for more picks!

Posted on Leave a comment

Thrive Fantasy Week 4 Picks

Prop bets meet daily fantasy on thrive fantasy, here are our favorite plays for week 4 . The format is simple pick O/U for 10 out of 20 options given. Points are awarded based on getting the prop correct. Winner takes the cash. Thrive has given out over 1.5 million dollars in prize money since its launch in 2018. Use promo code “VIG” when signing up and Thrive will match your deposit up to $50 ($20 minimum).

@JatTheVig $25 Sun Week 4 Picks

Austin EkelerUnder 54.5 Rushing Yards
Tyler Lockett Over 78.5 receiving Yards
DeAndre HopkinsOver 7.5 receptions
Baker MayfieldOver 0.5 interceptions
Allen Robinson Over 5.5 Receptions
Josh JacobsOver 0.5 Rushing TD’s
Carson WentzOver 22.5 Completions
George Kittle Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Under 295.5 Passing Yards
Cylde Edwards-HelaireOver 95.5 Total Yards

Check back weekly for our lineups here. And follow us on twitter for game picks.

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 5 Picks

2-2 last week makes me 5-7 on the year.  Obviously, I’d prefer to be 7-5 but you know who is 7-5? YOU!  Because you are now fading me every single week.  The only thing worse than going 5-7 would be going 6-6.  I’m giving you what not to take; which, in a roundabout way, means I’m giving you what to take.  Now, I’m still losing money here.  I’m not about to spend the next 5 weeks trying to get back to even so we have a do or die Week 5.  Nine plays and I can feel a heater coming on.

I’m going to give my usual analysis of my favorite games for week 5 and then just some quick picks at the end for the record books.  Fade at your own risk:

Louisiana Tech at #22 BYU -24, o/u 59 – Friday, 9PM on ESPN2

CFB Week 5 - La Tech at BYU

Friday Night Lights.  This is a matchup between a pair of 2-0 programs.  BYU is off to a historic start beating Navy 55-3 and following that up with a 48-7 victory over Troy.  La Tech smoked an FCS team (Boooo!) and squeezed out a 1-point victory against Southern Mississippi.  Stay with me here.  Southern Mississippi lost to Tulane 66-24, who lost to Navy 27-24, who lost to BYU 55-3!  So, if Team A > Team B > Team C > Team D ≈ Team E, is Team A > or < Team E?

Sorry, that’s completely pointless since BYU is already favored by 24 points; I’m just a sucker for a good old transitive property scenario.  On a serious note, BYU looks incredible.  Quarterback Zach Wilson is completing nearly 80% of his passes and the defense is allowing only 5 ppg.  Louisiana Tech has shown that they can put up points, but against an FCS team in Houston Baptist, that doesn’t hold much weight.  Troy also put up 47 the week prior to being held to only 7 by BYU.  I’ll ride with the Mormon’s till I die, but much like them, I can’t only have 1.

My Picks:  BYU -24 and OVER 59, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating.

UTSA at UAB -20.5, o/u 54.5 – 12:30

I really like UAB every year and Conference USA is one of those weird, fun gambling conferences.  The UTSA Roadrunners are coming off a 37-35 win over Middle Tennessee to become the first 3-0 team in the country, which is great for them.  However, they were a two-point conversion away from going to overtime with an 0-2 Middle Tennessee team that scored 14 points total in their first two games.  UTSA’s offense is solid but their defense is lacking.  At the end of the day, they are 3-0 and they’re 6-3 ATS in their last 9 (1-2 this season).  

UAB is 2-1 including a tough loss to a good Miami team.  This will be their first in-conference game and they’re undefeated at home since the programs resurgence in 2017 – that’s 19 straight wins at home.  They’re also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in October.  This line did open at 18.5 and most of the money is coming in on UTSA, I’m not a big “fade the public” guy, but I feel better being in this position.  With that being said, I won’t touch -21 or higher.

My Pick:  UAB -20.5 this is a 2 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 Oklahoma State -21.5 at Kansas, o/u 54 – 3:30PM on ESPN

I’m 2-0 in Oklahoma State games and Kansas STINKS.  I was unsure last week with Spencer Sanders being out, but Oklahoma State’s offense seemed to click pretty well with Shane Illingworth under center and the run game looked how everyone expected it to look this season.  They did only score 27 last week so we’re not seeing the offensive firepower that they’re known for and a 3-score spread feels daunting.  However, Kansas’ defense is giving up over 40 ppg in this young season and I think this could be OSU’s breakout game.  Regardless, the deciding factor in this game will be Oklahoma State’s defense.  Everyone overlooks it because they want to see the high powered offense, but the defense quietly racked up 5 sacks last week and is only allowing 10 ppg. Oklahoma State will put up more than 40 points in this game.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -21.5, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Tulsa at #11 UCF -21.5, o/u 72 – 7:30PM on ESPN2

A golden matchup.  Last season, UCF went 9-3.  In those 3 losses, they lost by a combined 7 points.  If the wind blew a different direction last year, we could very easily be talking about UCF going for their 4th consecutive undefeated regular season right now.  With how strange of a year this is, the self-declared National Champions of UCF have as good a shot as ever to make a run for the CFP.  Dillon Gabriel is coming off back-to-back 400 yard, 4 TD games and UCF has put up a combined 100 points in their first 2 games of the season.

Tulsa football is just that:  Tulsa Football. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 and 6-2 in their last 8 against the Golden Knights.  Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricanes, they have the honor of playing the #11 ranked team in the country in back-to-back games.  They’re coming off of a 16-7 loss to then #11 Oklahoma State where their defense looked stout, but their offense left a lot to be desired.  On the bright side, they did defeat the Golden Knights last season 34-31 and have had two weeks to prepare due to last week’s postponement.  Can they defeat UCF again this week?  I don’t think so.  Can they cover 3 scores? Probably.  What I’m really looking at here is a powerful UCF offense versus a decent Tulsa offense; who I believe, played an underrated Oklahoma State defense in their first contest.  I expect a high-scoring affair.

My Pick:  Tulsa +21.5 and OVER 72.  The over is my lock of the week.

Final Week 5 Picks:

  • Baylor -3 at West Virginia
  • #25 Memphis at SMU, OVER 74
  • #18 Oklahoma -7 at Iowa State

Follow me on Twitter for added picks and check out the Podcast every week!

Posted on Leave a comment

Presidential Debate Drinking Game

We’re gearing up for what could be one of the funniest nights of television we’ve had in about 4 years. As is standard for any comedy show, there’s at least a 2 drink minimum if you want to watch tonight’s presidential debate.  Why should we pay attention to the actual context of the debate when we can listen and watch for cues that provide an excuse to drink?  Let’s get into it:

One Sip:

  • If Trump is wearing a red tie
  • If Biden is wearing a blue tie
  • Any time Coronavirus/COVID-19 is mentioned
  • Any time Trump says “China”
  • Any time Trump says “Sleepy Joe”
  • Any time Biden says “folks”
  • Any time Biden mentions Trump’s taxes
  • Any time either candidate provides a non-answer

Two Sips:

  • Any time Russia is mentioned
  • Any time Trump says “China Virus/Kung Flu”
  • Any time Trump says Biden wants to defund the police
  • Any time Trump mentions voter fraud
  • Any time Trump drinks water with two hands
  • Either candidate insults the other’s son
  • Either candidate blatantly insults the other
  • Any time Biden says “malarkey”
  • Any time Biden says “Obama”
  • Any time Biden mentions peaceful protestors

Shot/Finish Drink if:

  • Trump’s complexion meets or exceeds “Nacho Cheese 2018-40” (see below)
  • Trump says “All Lives Matter”
  • Trump accuses Biden of being on drugs
  • Biden sniffs Trump’s hair
  • Biden forgets where he is
  • Candidates shake hands
  • Audience member protests
  • Fight breaks out
Posted on Leave a comment

Thrive Fantasy Week 3 Picks

Prop bets meet daily fantasy on thrive fantasy, after going a combined 16-4 last week here are our favorite plays for week 3 . The format is simple pick O/U for 10 out of 20 options given. Points are awarded based on getting the prop correct. Winner takes the cash. Thrive has given out over 1.5 million dollars in prize money since its launch in 2018. Use promo code “VIG” when signing up and Thrive will match your deposit up to $50 ($20 minimum).

@JatTheVig $5 Sunday Rush Lineup

Daniel Jones Over .5 Interceptions
Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Receptions
Davante Adams Under 91.5 Receiving Yards
Aaron Rodgers Under 2.5 Pass TDs
Alvin Kamara Over 103.5 Total Yards
Leonard FournetteOver 45.5 Rushing Yards
Deshaun WatsonOver 20.5 Completions
Odell Beckham JrUnder 69.5 Receiving Yards
Dak Prescott Over 2.5 TDs/INT
Derrick Henry Over 0.5 Rush TDs

@BillTheVig $5 Sunday Rush Lineup

Cam Newton Under 240.5 Pass Yards
Odell Beckham JrOver 69.5 Receiving Yards
Deshaun Watson Over 20.5 Completions
Joe BurrowOver 1.5 Pass TDs
Calvin Ridley Over 0.5 Receiving TDs
Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Receptions
Dak PrescottOver 2.5 TDs/INT
Russel WilsonOver 23.5 Completions
Drew BreesUnder 272.5 Pass Yards
Alvin Kamara Over 103.5 Total Yards
Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 4 Picks

We’re 3-5 on the cfb season so far.  Not great, but it’s early – we’re still learning!  We had one of the worst losses you’ll ever see last week after Tulane blew a 24-0 lead with Navy scoring 27 unanswered, that’s just a loss that you cannot have.  If you follow me on Twitter, you can see the other picks I take throughout the day because 4 is obviously not enough.  Last week I added Troy -2.5 and Miami 1H ML, so in reality I went 4-2 and we’re even on the year, but who’s counting? 

Let’s get into this week’s card.

Middle Tennessee at Texas San Antonio -6.5, o/u 60 – Friday, 8PM on CBSSN

Friday Night Lights! Which means we all have an obligation to bet this game.  Last week, I took Troy -2.5 against Middle Tennessee and it was never in doubt, with Troy coming out on top 47-14.  Middle Tennessee has now lost their first two contests at a combined score of 89-14…yikes.  On the other side, UTSA had an absolute shootout in Week 1 against Texas State winning 51-48 in OT and have found themselves in a hot streak after beating SF Austin 24-10 last week.  The play here seems pretty obvious, 6.5 points is not even close to enough for a team that can hardly manage to score a TD per game.  Middle Tennessee has no run defense (allows 290 yds/gm) and UTSA loves run the ball all over your face (280 yds/gm).  I see this covering easily to start your weekend off right.

My Pick:  UTSA -6.5, this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating. I can’t give a lock on Friday night!

#24 Louisville at #21 Pittsburgh -3, o/u 55.5 – NOON on ACCN

I had Pittsburgh -21.5 last week against Syracuse and it was just a disgusting game to watch no matter who you were rooting for.  I hear a lot of hype around Kenny Pickett, but overall I wasn’t very impressed.  His stat line is ok, but watching the game, his decision making was very questionable and he had a lot of bad passes.  He seems like a guy who won’t lose the game for you, but he also won’t win it for you either.  I also had Miami beating Louisville last week which was never close.  I think Miami could be the real deal this year, so I don’t want to look at that game as a major failure by Louisville – they’re just not a major contender while Miami very well could be. 

Malik Cunningham is a playmaker and will see a challenge this week against a stout Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 26 ypg on the ground .  To be fair, Miami’s defense is supposed to be stout as well and Louisville still managed to rack up 34 points.  With Pittsburgh’s offense being lackluster to say the least, I think that Louisville should be able to contain them enough to allow their offensive firepower to be the difference maker.  Louisville should be the favorite in this game. Take the free points if you’re scared of a little juice, but you’re not scared of the juice.

My Pick:  Louisville ML +125, this is my lock of the week.

Mississippi State at #6 LSU -17, o/u 57.5 – 3:30 PM on CBS

Oct 20, 2018; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill (8) is tackled by LSU Tigers defensive end Rashard Lawrence (90) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

To nobody’s surprise, LSU has had to do a lot of rebuilding coming into this year.  Of course, when you win a national title you’re going to lose a lot of your guys to the NFL so this is to be expected.  Still, it makes you wonder what exactly we’ll be seeing this year from the Tigers and Coach O.  Mississippi State is now in the Air Raid era of Mike Leach.  For those of you who have been following us from our XFL beginnings, Mike Leach’s mentor is the legendary Hal Mumme (former OC for the Dallas Renegades and the air raid Don). 

LSU’s defense will be put to the test against this Air Raid Offense and I expect Mississippi State to see the endzone a few times.  On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s defense is arguably the worst in the SEC and we all know what LSU is capable of (the over was 10-5 last season).  The over is the play here and I think everyone has their eye on it. (WARNING: The over is 0-5 in these programs last 5 matchups)

My Pick:  Over 57.5, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma State -7, o/u 51.5 – 3:30 PM on ABC

We really don’t have much to evaluate on West Virginia’s side.  They stomped an FCS team in Eastern Kentucky 56-10, but does that hold any weight? This week will be their first true test of the season and they did have two weeks to prepare, so take that into account more than their beatdown on that poor Eastern Kentucky team. 

Oklahoma State was a major let down for a lot of people last week after only scoring 16 against a Tulsa team they were supposed to blow out.  A win is a win though, so it’s on to the next week and on to West Virginia.  I’m still really high on the Cowboys, but this week is all going to come down to Spencer Sanders health.  He injured his ankle against Tulsa and the offense looked atrocious from that point on. Yes, Chuba Hubbard is an NFL prospect and yes, Tylan Wallace is incredible – BUT, Ethan Bullock is terrible and who knows about Shane Illingworth. If Spencer Sanders is healthy and ready to go, I’ll take Oklahoma State all the way up to -10.

My Pick:  Oklahoma State -7, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating*.

*Pending Spencer Sanders’ health.

Check out the Podcast every week for our CFB and NFL picks/analysis!

Posted on Leave a comment

MJ and Denny Hamlin to start NASCAR team

Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin are teaming to star their own NASCAR team. The one driver team will be aligned with Joe Gibbs Racing who Hamlin currently drives for. Hamlin has been dominant this year winning 6 races, and is one of the favorites to bring home the championship. Jordan who also owns the Charlotte Hornets became friends with Hamlin in 2009 when Hamlin attended a Bobcats game. Hamlin was signed by Nike’s Jordan brand two years later. Jordan a lifelong NASCAR fan has been seen at multiple events to cheer on Hamlin, and the two have finally decided to team up.

The team announced that their solo driver would be Bubba Wallace. Wallace became a household name earlier this season when a noose was found in his garage. It was later determined that the noose had been there at least 8 months prior. Wallace currently drives for Richard Petty Motorsports announced earlier this year that he would be leaving the team at the end of the season.

Wallace will now go from driving for one of the greatest drivers in history to one of the greatest athletes all time, and one of the best drivers in the Cup Series. My only hope is that he gets to drive the #23 car with some type of black and red paints scheme.

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 3 Picks

Back to the drawing board after a rough 1-3 Week 2 in CFB.  I’m no mathematician but if I understand statistics then that means I should go 3-1 this week, right? That’s how statistics work?  Comment your picks below and we can get some records going.

Syracuse at #25 Pittsburgh -21.5, o/u 50 – NOON on ACCN

CFB

Last week, Syracuse lost to UNC 31-6 and gave up 480 yards of offense.  Tommy DeVito was sacked 7 times and threw for only 112 yards.  Pittsburgh is coming off what was essentially a mercy rule 55-0 win over Austin Peay.  They went into halftime up 42-0 where both teams agreed to play only 10-minute quarters for the second half (thoughts and prayers to all over-bettors).   Pittsburgh’s defensive line is more talented than UNC’s from everything I’ve gathered; that spells trouble for Syracuse for the second week in a row.

My Pick:  Pitt -21.5 this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.

Tulsa at #11 Oklahoma St. -23, o/u 66 – NOON on ESPN

CFB matchup between Tulsa and Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State beat Tulsa last year 40-21.  The spread on that game was 17.5 or 18.5 when Oklahoma State broke a last second touchdown when running out the clock to cover.  This game started a saying amongst my friends of “that’s just Tulsa football”.  I was pretty much dead all game and got bailed out by a fluke play.  Oklahoma State was 9-3-1 ATS last year and this season they have their entire defense returning.  That’s huge considering the limited practices due to COVID restrictions.  OSU is really known for their offense though, putting up over 32 ppg last season and we should expect to see more of the same this time around.  They should be contenders this year and are my black horse for the Big 12 at +700 and the Championship at +10000.  Also; someone to watch, OSU RB Chuba Hubbard is a guy who ran for over 2000 yards last year, is a heisman candidate and a first round hopeful for the NFL.  With all of that being said, Tulsa was 5-2 ATS as the underdog in 2019 – that’s just Tulsa football.  

My Pick:  Tulsa +23 this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

Navy at Tulane -7, o/u 48.5 – NOON on ABC

CFB Matchup between Tulane and Navy

Obviously, we all know that Navy got absolutely stomped out by the Mormons in week 1 55-3.  It came out recently that the midshipmen hadn’t even engaged in any live tackling prior to that game due to coronavirus fears, whatever that means.  They gave up over 300 yards rushing for a team that is supposed to be known for their front 7.  Tulane’s lead back only rushed the ball 11 times last week but racked up 105 yards on those attempts.  Tulane is coming up off of their first win of the year where they only gave up 65 yards on 35 rushing attempts.  As we all know, Navy does not or cannot pass the ball.  These are 2 run-first offenses, so you might want to peak at the under, but I just hate unders.  The line opened at Tulane -8.5 and has moved down to -7, I’m going to keep my eye on it and take it at -6.5 or I’ll just buy the half point.

My Pick: Tulane -6.5 this is a 5 out of 5 confidence rating.

#17 Miami at #18 Louisville -2.5, o/u 65 – 7:30pm on ABC

CFB Matchup between Miami and Louisville

This is the game of the week and I’m gambling with my eyes on this one.  I watched both the Louisville v Western Kentucky game and Miami v UAB game.  I was far more impressed with Miami than I was with Louisville and I was also more impressed with UAB than I was Western Kentucky.  Louisville allowed WKU to stay in that game with two major special teams mistakes and Western Kentucky’s own mistakes took themselves out of that game.  Miami and UAB played a much cleaner game and in my opinion, it never seemed like UAB had a shot.  

For this Saturday; Miami is a run-first offense, but D’Eriq King has a cannon for an arm, he just overthrew the deep ball a few times.  If he can dial those in Miami will have an even more dangerous offense.  Running back Cam’Ron Harris looked great and he’s healthy for this week after leaving in the 4th with a leg injury.  On top of that D’Eriq King can move.  Louisville allowed WKU’s QB to scramble quite a bit so I see King taking full advantage of that.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, but I see Miami coming out on top.

My Pick:  Miami ML +110 as my lock of the week.

Check out my Twitter for live tweets during the games and more picks! New episodes of The Vig drop weekly.

Posted on Leave a comment

CFB Week 2 Picks

It’s obviously very difficult to know what to expect from any team in the first few games of a season in any sport, but especially college sports because of the amount of turnover you see year-to-year.  So, one of the most important statistics for the first couple of week’s is going to be looking at teams’ returning production. 

Charlotte at Appalachian State -17, o/u59 – Saturday, NOON on ESPN2 

Both of these teams are in the top 30 overall with offensive returning production.  Both teams still have their dual-threat QBs and still have their main receiving corps. Appalachian State is a team that went 13-1 last season with the 9th overall scoring offense averaging 39 ppg. Charlotte is a team that averaged 30 ppg last season and runs a spread offense that really started to click by the end of the year where they won their last 5 conference games.  

On the flip side of this, both of these teams are in the lower half of returning production on defense.  While App State only allowed 20 ppg, they did lose nearly half of their defense so I expect them to take a step back.  Charlotte lost nearly 60% of their defense including their schools all-time leading tackler as well as their all-time sack leader.  A team that allowed over 32 ppg last season could see an even larger number this year.  I see the over hitting pretty easily, the only thing I could see getting in the way is some rain in the forecast to cause some issues in the passing game.

My Pick:  OVER 59

Duke at Notre Dame -19.5, o/u54.5 – Saturday, 2:30PM on NBC

DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 09: Josh Blackwell #31 and Michael Carter II #26 of the Duke Blue Devils chase Ian Book #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish out of bounds during the first quarter of their game at Wallace Wade Stadium on November 09, 2019 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

This is the only game on my card that will have fans in attendance – around 15,000. Notre Dame isn’t known as a particularly tough place to play, so I don’t see the attendance being a factor; but I still thought it was worth noting. These two teams faced off last year and Notre Dame won handily 38-7.   Last year, Duke was a sub .500 team at 5-7 and has seen a pretty big shake up overall, a new QB and 3 new coaches paired with limited time to prepare with coronavirus. They do have a lot of returning talent on the defensive end, but for a team that gave up 30 ppg, I’m not so sure that’s a good thing.  Notre Dame is on their best stretch of football in recent memory and most importantly they’re 24-14-1 ATS in their last 3 seasons.  They have a heisman candidate QB in 5th-year-senior Ian Book who will be working behind 6 returning offensive lineman.  Notre Dame is a playoff hopeful who I can see going 11-1 this year (losing to Clemson).  I’m taking Notre Dame minus the points and expect a similar score to last years matchup.  Some rain in the forecast as well – maybe take a peak at the under.

My Pick:  Notre Dame -19.5

Clemson -33 at Wake Forest, o/u60 – Saturday, 7:30PM on ABC

Oct 6, 2018; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Travis Etienne (9) runs the ball in the first quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at BB&T Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson was 8-1 ATS in conference games last season which includes a 52-3 win over Wake Forest.  A 33 point spread is scary enough, but – something to ease your mind – Clemson was 5-1 ATS last season when the spread was over 30 points.  Clemson is a team that is in the lower-tier of returning production, but of those returning you have the best QB in the nation in Trevor Lawrence, you have Travis Etienne who is probably the best back in the nation and Clemson’s entire defensive line is back.  Wake Forest is the polar opposite.  They lost their quarterback, running back, top 3 receivers and almost their entire offensive line.  If the score wasn’t so outrageous in last years contest I would say to expect an even better showing from the Tigers. I’m taking Clemson -33 and I’m going to take the first half line as well.

My Picks:  Clemson 1H -21 and Clemson -33

Posted on Leave a comment

Nets Hire Former MVP Steve Nash to Become Head Coach

I will be honest, when I got this update from Woj I had to triple take to make sure I was reading this right. This was something that came out of nowhere, and I am very pleased with this decision. This checks most of all the box’s for who I want to coach this team.

For this team in particular, it is most important that the superstars are happy with the decision. Kevin Durant and Nash have a relationship back when Nash was a consultant for Golden State a few years back. Kyrie and Nash don’t have a known relationship, but I am assuming Kyrie has a lot of respect for Nash. I also think that bringing in Nash is great for Kyrie, as learning from one of the greatest point guards with one of the greatest work ethics I have ever seen in my life will only benefit Kyrie. The next box that Nash checks is a not only a great former player (a back to back MVP), but a basketball genius that I am extremely confident his knowledge of the game makes him capable of being a great head coach.

The concerns that I have with Nash is with a lack of coaching experience, how will he command the locker room? How will he implement his basketball knowledge into being a head coach? Running a team through the point guard and being an extension of a head coach is much different from actually being the head coach.

With all of the concerns being stated, I am overall excitedly optimistic about this move. Putting aside my bias about Nash being one of my favorite players growing up, I suspect that this is one of the best moves that Brooklyn could’ve made.