Hello, week 15! I went 3-2 last week to move to 33-30-1 on the season. Not terrible all things considered. With only 2 more weeks of regular season and then on to bowl season, we need to widen this gap. Check out the Podcast for more picks and follow me on Twitter for College Basketball picks and more! Let’s get into my week 15 card:
#11 Oklahoma -14 at WVU, o/u 56.5 – NOON on ABC
Oklahoma has won their last 8 contests against West Virginia and has put up 40+ points in 7 of those 8 games. This year OU is averaging over 43 points per game so I expect that trend to continue and although you think of offense when you look at Oklahoma, their defense has turned into a force in the last month. They’ve only allowed 12 ppg in their last 3 and I don’t see any indicators of them letting up. West Virginia has been surprisingly stout on defense this year allowing just over 20 ppg which is probably why the spread is just 14 in this game. While WVU has held some ranked opponents to 20 or less, they are coming off of an absolute beat down by Iowa State and Oklahoma is a different beast.
My Pick: Oklahoma -14, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
Navy at Army (-7), o/u38 – 3PM on CBS
Of course I have to make a play in this game. These games usually are wildly boring but everyone just shuts up and loves it because, America. This year’s contest is being played at West Point for the first time since 1943, which is pretty cool. Home field advantage for the Black Knights and at first-glance you should expect Army (7-2) to beat Navy (3-6) pretty handily. However, Army has faced 3 FCS opponents and when you look at Army and Navy’s only common opponent, we see quite the contrast. Tulane smoked Army 38-12, while Navy scored 27 unanswered points in a 27-24 comeback victory against Tulane. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Navy win this game outright. With all of that being said, I think the smartest play here is the under. The last 6 Army/Navy game totals have been 38 or under. I want to see 2 passes from Navy and 18 total punts. That’s what America is all about.
My Pick: Navy +7 and UNDER 38, these are both 3 out of 5 confidence ratings. I’m also sprinkling some Navy ML +220.
#22 Oklahoma State (-5) at Baylor, o/u 49 – 7PM on ESPNU
Oklahoma State has fallen off a cliff. They’ve lost 3 out of their last 5 and my once sharp play of Oklahoma State +700 to win the Big XII has now blown up in my face. Both of these teams are coming off of losses to Oklahoma, with Baylor’s loss being far more respectable. While Oklahoma State isn’t who I thought they were, I still think they’re levels above Baylor. Neither of these teams score or give up over 30 ppg so maybe 5 points is a bigger task than it appears on the surface, but at the end of the day I believe in Ok State’s defense and their offense has the ability to drop 40 on anyone. One last ride with the Cowboy’s. I’ll see you again.
My Pick: Oklahoma State -5, this is my lock of week 15.
Fresno State (-11.5) at New Mexico, o/u 60 – 10:30PM on FS1
Picking the top games of the week can get exhausting and I can’t think of a better way to cap off my Saturday night than by watching the Bulldogs versus the Lobos. Also, what is a Lobos? Or what are Lobos? According to google it’s a timber wolf. So the Bulldogs versus the Timber Wolves. Both of these teams have lost to Hawaii and Nevada, and in similar fashion. Fresno State did handle Utah State while New Mexico lost to USU by 14. The deciding factor in this game for me is the quarterback play. Fresno State’s Jake Haener has been phenomenal for them in this short season while New Mexico is a mess. The Lobos are looking at having a true-freshman, walk-on quarterback in Isaiah Chavez after Connor Genal, another freshman, went down with a wrist injury. Off that situation, paired with Bulldogs vs. Timber wolves, the choice is clear.
My Pick: Fresno State -11.5, this is a 2 out of 5 confidence rating.