Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving – we are back! I’m now 30-28-1 on the season which is the first time I’ve been over .500 all year. It’s better to get hot late than never get hot at all! Not the best slate this weekend but that’s ok because it’s being made up for having the game of the year in BYU @ Coastal Carolina. Let’s get into my Week 14 Card:
#5 Texas A&M (-7) at Auburn, o/u 49 – NOON on ESPN
I haven’t taken A&M seriously all year and for no real reason. I think it’s probably because it’s the SEC so I think of Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida before them. But they’re 6-1 on the year, #5 in the country and a real contender for the CFP. They’ve covered every game where they’re less than 10 point favorites, Auburn is 0-2 as underdogs ATS. Auburn has really struggled against the better teams in the SEC, 7 points is nothing here so it’s time I put some respek on The Aggies name. Also, everything about this game screams under – Bo Nix, A&M’s defense, Auburn’s 1-7 o/u’s, low total, and that’s why I’m going to take the over.
My picks: A&M -7 and OVER 49. These are 3 out of 5 confidence ratings.
Syracuse (+34) at #2 Notre Dame, o/u 51.5 – 2:30PM on NBC
Syracuse lost earlier this season to Clemson by 26 and haven’t lost by over 34 yet. Something about Syracuse football just screams spoiler to me and it 100% is because they beat Clemson in 2017. Nearly every stat for both Syracuse and Notre Dame matches up. PPG scored and PPG allowed, rushing and passing yards gained vs allowed are roughly the same. So if this is an average game for both of these teams we should expect around a 37-17 game. 34 is a lot of points and I think Syracuse is a team where 34 makes you feel even better.
My Pick: Syracuse +34, this is a 3 out of 5 confidence rating.
#13 BYU (-10) at #18 Coastal Carolina, o/u 61 – 5:30 PM on ESPNU
This is by far my most anticipated game of the week. I was excited for Liberty at CC regardless, but BYU has been by far my favorite team to watch this season, with CC a close second. Coastal Carolina just keeps winning. I remember when they were ranked for the first time in program history early this year and everyone was expecting them to crumble under the pressure. Fast forward to week 14 and they’re 9-0 and now hosting College Gameday for the first time. Good teams win, great teams cover and CC is 7-1-1 ATS this year. On the other side, BYU is 6-2-1 ATS. I think that the difference maker in this game is going to be BYU’s defense and Tyler Allgeier being an absolute force in the running game. Unfortunately I don’t see either of these teams having a CFP chance, but a win here is huge for either program. I hate to do it, but I love to do it, I’m rolling with the Stormin’ Mormons.
My Pick: BYU -10, this is a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.
Baylor at #11 Oklahoma (-22), o/u 62.5 – 8PM on FOX
I said a couple of weeks ago that Oklahoma wasn’t really back because they played a few terrible teams and then they waxed Oklahoma State. So, hand up I was wrong and Oklahoma is definitely back. I even see people coming up with scenarios where Oklahoma makes the CFP, but I dont see that happening. They’re 6-2 ATS and Baylor is 2-4-1. Baylor is a team that casual fans would be very disappointed in because they were one game away from being in the playoffs. But they lost a ton of players and a lot of their coaching staff, which is showing to put it lightly. They won their first game v Kansas, lost 5 straight, then just beat K. State. So basically if you’re not a Kansas team you can chalk your matchup against Baylor as a win. While they havent been getting blown out, I think they’re significantly worse than Oklahoma State who Oklahoma just beat 41-13. Like I said, Oklahoma is back.
My Pick: Oklahoma -22, this is my lock of the week.